Skunk Of Ages

Sat 10/29 7am: Late in the day today best c-front spots will have waves. By Sunday the wind goes NE and it’s flat again. Check it late. have a great day…

Fri 4pm: Power is back on. Sorry for forecasting good surf for this week. I should have seen that coming. You just think you can believe the models and the NHC when it’s inside 48 hours. Climatologically speaking, channel swells in late October are not that common. Rina was set up to do the deal but got dry air entrained and sheared apart. Figures, this late in the year the upper air conditions get hostile quick for hurricanes. The only chance for surf now is late Saturday. Maybe look at the cams for your cold front spots. The last two hours before dark could see ridable windswell at N County. I’m pretty confident about that but then I was pretty confident about Rina also. Everyone is a wreck after this week. Keep your chin up. Hopefully it will be a good winter.
Going to be doing a daily report from Rincón, PR for a bit. check it out

Wed am forcast track.

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93 thoughts on “Skunk Of Ages”

  2. E.Alland

    From Levi/Tropical Tidbits 10/22/
    There has been little change to the SW Caribbean disturbance since yesterday, and it looks much the same. Pressures continue to fall at San Andres Island near the low center. Models are shifting significantly west with the long-term track, expecting the 2nd trough not to make it in time to save 96L from central America. Some kind of a westward turn is to be expected, but it remains to be seen whether it will actually take 96L inland. We have several days yet to watch this system.

    Waiting to see what he says in his next report

  3. admin Post author

    thanks Evy. With td 18 down there everything is in flux. I will try and post something insightful tomorrow am but this kind of system is tighter to actual when we get to 72hrs out which would be Wednesday or so.

  5. tubetime

    She’s getting her act together quickly. Already a hurricane! We might have a Major hurricane in our swell window! I hope nobody gets to worked over by this system.

    WTNT63 KNHC 241804 TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS STRENGTHENED. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

    1. admin Post author

      True that Jake, the only thing I will say for Cancun and Cozumel is that they are very used to this kind of action and build their condos with massive amounts of fortified concrete. they’ve been through a lot of cat 4 and 5 and seem to make it w/o much of a scratch. maybe it will create jobs for them. hope they stay safe.

  12. fbc

    so admin not trying to jinx this but what kind of swell conditions are possible out of this one? I was not here for Wilma… I have seen channel swell here only a few times since I have lived here, not big but high quality… it just so happens the company I work for is doing their annual inventory this Friday night/Saturday, not being here for it means being fired! go figure on the timing… the best I will be able to do is take some extended lunch breaks both days, wah

  13. Brad

    Also not trying to jinx this, but could this be swell for Friday-Sunday? And is the front that is scheduled to drop down contingent on Rina? Or will the front bring on-shore wind this weekend either way? Getting pumped! Thanks so much for all your updates and forecasts.

  14. Rob

    FBC … I am right there with you as far as an inability to get out of work. Don’t feel bad … misery loves company …

  15. TO

    Set the stage.
    Tuesday-Sore throat
    Wednesday-Sore throat and exhaustion
    Thursday-Sore throat, exhaustion and and fever
    Friday- Game time

  17. capt j

    tommy you crack me up! you may wanna skip the setup and just go with the old pink eye trick day of! wait, did i just give up my secret weapon? dang! stoked for Friday, hopefully sooner!

  18. E.Alland

    WILMA — made my kid a man – memorable – paddled out a young kid w/ a new long board – when he came out of the water — he had a whole new look, the Experience was a right of passage for him

  24. RUSS-D

    looking forard to the chanel swell. Only one I missed back in the cane boom was Gustov. And that was because I had split the palm of my hand open and had 11 stitches in it.

  27. E.Alland

    Thanks CB for those Wilma Pics
    Micah — one terrific write-up this morning – yes, the NEWS is good, but your report was a wonderful read too!

  28. E.Alland

    just read your tube instructions….. dang if ONLY i could get in that green room just once in my lifetime…….hopefully many groms will get their first — ol surf mom here will be content to ride whatever I can manage & watch my FLORIDA BOYS EXCEL & ENJOY!!!!

  34. Fuggin

    Time to bust out the swell distance/speed calculator…off the top of my head , we should see some fat skim lines by sundown tomorrow… Anyone else have a take on it?

  35. ogar

    anybody think there will be a second pulse maybe sunday? its been awhile since theres been a cane sending surf for cwfl works got me missin friday …might possibly quit haha

  38. capt j

    rina, oh rina…please come back to life you whore! knee to waist crowded lineups all because she let a little ole cold front smack her in the face. guess i’m gonna fish afterall.

  40. C*

    i’m over the emotional rollercoaster. Hyped out of my mind for the past 5 days and now afetr the latest model i’m crushed. Here’s my take: My expectations are right where they should be now. I was expecting shoulder hi grinders at an empty beach and was very much let down this am with the new track, now i will be stoked if its even loggable over the next couple days. I guess that is where i should always keep my expectations. Good thing i have a 9’10 i guess.

  48. alex

    Hmmm. Though it does’t look like she will be as strong of a storm. If she continues to blow around 60mph and stay with her east side in the channel for the duration it is showing. I don’t think the strength of the winds will make to big of a difference. Swell production is the result of fetch, wind speed, and duration. We have enough wind speed and duration with this track, only problem is not very much fetch with her sitting over the yucatan. At least the east side of the storm is where the south winds are located… still some hope… Anyone know what the buoys were reading during the Dean swell?

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