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Marco and Laura Week in the GOMEX

Noon wfl update Saturday: looks smaller than early this morning knee high range. Talk to you Monday. Have a good weekend.

Saturday 8am WFL: Still going, thigh high and definitely still rideable at the best spots. A little bumpy with SSW winds, more details below.



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Saturday Details 8am WFL 8/29/20: We have SW windswell this Saturday in the 1-2ft range at 7 seconds on the beach with light SSW winds. There were some SW winds in the gulf/Yucatan late yesterday and last night that have kept the surf going. Definitely good for a longboard today or maybe more at the best spots. Should be a small wave all day today. Future: The remnants of Laura keep SW flow over the gulf but tomorrow looks smaller. A 1ft/knee high wind wave is expected tomorrow and Monday with light SW flow. In the long term the tropics will switch back to the Atlantic as we go full Cape Verde and some weird patterns out there. It may take a couple weeks before any African energy comes back to the Gulf but dude that was so fun! Enjoy your Saturday! What a great week of surf for WFL. Thanks for blowing up the site this week and for everyone that donated, you guys rock, stoked you scored, props for pullin in… Future: There is a lot coming down the pike, will it come gulf-side? Stay tuned on that one… And tune into Melancholy Monday, Height of the Season 2020 as we discuss what it’s like to go thru a hurricane, check back. Have a great weekend.

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    Previous Reports before and during Marco and Laura



Friday 7am Details(next update at Noon):
Looking at all the buoys in the gulf this am there is a distinct change in period on the southern most buoys. The buoys in the top of the gulf are 8 seconds or less but 99 and 003 both have 9-10 second west swell. Maybe this will reflect in the size of the surf today; bigger down south. 99 went 10 seconds for 4hrs in a row after being at 9 seconds. Could there be a last little push sometime today? Somebody will find some fun waves today, hope you do. By late today it will probably fade but still a small rideable wave all day.
Aurasurf.com WFL Marco and Laura Week Surf Forecast:
Thursday 8/20: 1ft SW waves, PM.
Friday 8/21: 1ft/knee high waves.
Saturday 8/22: 1ft SSE waves PM.
Sunday 8/23 1-2ft S waves filling in at best south swell spots(ETA?).
Monday 8/24: 1-2ft south waves.
Tuesday 8/25: SSE wave knee to waist high at best south swell spots with SE side offshore winds.
Wednesday 8/26: Knee to waist high SW swell at best spots with offshore winds.
Thursday 8/27: Knee to waist high west swell.
Friday 8/28: 1-2ft west waves.
Saturday 8/29: Slow knee high west swell from Texas/LA.

Friday Night at the Jetty. Venicejetty.com does it again with the best GC small wave coverage. Thanks Joey!

Middle Gulf Buoy Wednesday am. 24-36hrs away…

Ryan Cambell pulling in late in the day in St Pete. Photo: PJ. thanks!

UI dropping into a beautiful peak. Manatee Cnty this morning. Photo to aurasurf.com: Ryan Cambell, thanks! If you know who this is claim it!

Wednesday South Venice. 6:30am

Wed 6:20am WFL Surf Report: Good morning guys the swell has picked up a lot. In the dark in Venice it’s capping on the outside bar and barreling right in front of the rocks in the Cove on the sets, looks chest high plus. Your not surfed out yet are you? Buoy is 2-4ft SW at 10-11seconds. Wind is offshore and conditions are clean, more details below. Classic GC hurricane swell today. Go surf.

Laura Looking Legit! Wednesday am. Did we hit the peak of the Laura swell today? Lots of clean swell still on the way but it may be smaller.


Wed 6:45am WFL Details: The tide is pretty full this am as the moon waxes towards full and some swell fills in. It is supposed to go out slowly all day today. The winds are offshore everywhere this am. The wind has been going SSE towards lunch time every day, putting a bump on it. Any afternoon storms could clean it up late. MWatson(IRB!) from Surfline mentioned in their WFL forecast that the swell would not last too long bc Laura is/was moving away so quickly. I think it could be pulsey. I definitely think there will be a west swell from the NW Gulf at some point esp as she is ramping up big time. All that being said: It might be smaller tomorrow, that’s the forecast, still fun but smaller. The west swell from the NW gulf would fill in Friday in the waist high range IMO. Great week to be a surfer in WFL. The track reminds me of Rita, she made landfall in the same area and it’s not super populated along that stretch, still thoughts and prayers for the people in the path of Major Laura. We have a small LP NNE swell filling in today, gonna go surf, have fun! I want to see pics of you guys getting barreled! Maybe some broken boards also AMI.
Tuesday 6:30am WFL There’s still waves this am guys though it does not look that big at the moment. It looks like south swell in the knee to waist high range at best spots. Pinellas looks really small with St Pete looking 1ft/knee high range. Best south swell spots will be the call this morning as normal beach is pretty small and not really rideable. All the C-man stations and PORTS data report straight E winds, still a south ruffle is on the waves except at the jetty spots. Summary: A lot of East in the waves as Laura strengthens in the southern gulf. The wave models show the swell staying pretty SSE today and then clocking SSW and SW tomorrow. Waves look knee to waist high at best south facing beaches today. Tomorrow the wave models show the period longer around 9 seconds and the swell SW at 2-3ft. Maybe a little more searching for waves today, hope you find some fun ones. Laura is now forecast to become a major so she will send back some west swell later this week. Back around lunchtime with an updater.
Monday 1pm WFL Updater Looks like it dropped a little. It looks knee to thigh in Venice and St Pete with occ plus sets. Wind is coming sideshore, jetties are still clean. Wave models show it dropping a bit more later today.
What does Tuesday Look Like? Check the conditions early. Looks like a hard angled south building thru the am with SE wind. So more south in the waves and wind possible tomorrow. Late Tuesday could be good as more swell fills in from the southern gulf, my best guess is waist high range and building late at best south facing beaches. Have a good afternoon.

6am South Venice. In the dark it looks like waist high swell with some thump. St Pete looks smaller in the knee high range but it might be because it’s still pretty dark out. The waves are clean with offshore winds. Back at lunch with an update.

Monday 8/24/2020 WFL 5:30am Dawn Patrol: GM guys the buoy has trended up over the last few hrs. It’s 3.9 @ 8seconds SW. That could be really fun. Try and go surf this morning. PORTS data has every site reporting East winds around 10mph so it should be glassy. The tide looks pretty full but starting to head out. More details coming, back at 1st light.

Details 6am: By tomorrow am Laura will be in the gulf emerging off Cuba. Local winds are forecast to be breezy SE at around 20. Marco has weakened a lot and his weak side was his west side so his swell may drop off pretty quick as the Laura south swell takes over tomorrow. The wave models show a strong Cayo Hueso SSE swell tomorrow building in the morning thru lunchtime. Laura is forecast to slow-trek the entire gulf and wave models show lots of SW winds on her SW side so that’s a good sign for SW swell, (even Western Puerto Rico had south swell yesterday and still has SW swell today from when Laura passed PR on Saturday). That should make for some swell all week for WFL varying with the time and tide. Keep in mind the best groundswell surf spots will be bigger than the local beachy. Back at lunch with an update.

Sunday WFL 4pm: Should you skip work tomorrow?
W/o hyping it, disclaimer or sending anymore EC guys your way: Probably if you can swing it… or at least get up early and check conditions(you never know with the gulf it could be small). There should still be swell and the wind has a chance to be ESE at 10knts 2-3ft at 8-9 seconds waist high and clean at best spots. Just my best guess based on what the wave models are showing… stoked for you guys. I’ll be back tomorrow am, on it early. I hope you score, it looks fun. The 098 buoy should be 2-4ft from the SSW or SW with a period of at least 8 seconds. The wave models show the period dropping off rather quickly but man Marco kicked in the channel you would think it would last at least 24hrs before going to the 25/85 swell. Hope that helps, low confidence…

Sunday 2pm wfl update: looks to be coming up- knee to waist high swell on the cams down in srq. Look for more waves to fill in all the way to dark.tomorrow should be fun, more later.

Sunday 8:30am 1ft south lines in St Pete.

Sunday WFL 8am: Looks 1ft or less this am… Just got some power back, and internet… It usually takes about 6hrs from The southern buoys till a small line fills in. Maybe small when it first arrives. Definitely try and surf this afternoon- spread out and share, yeah right, starving surfers hoping to hit the Sunday buffet later. Definitely psyched for the forecast. Marco even though he is small really roughed up the channel so that is what will be filling in today some Yucatan juice. Now that he’s out in the gulf his west side is his weak side and he’s small so after the channel swell it may get smaller but then more west as he strengthens before hitting LA. That will meet the incoming Laura if she can keep it together. Looks like a great surf week coming up for WFL, take your vacation now 🙂

WFL Tropical Surf Chances have gone way up. Photo: M-Dub.

Sunday WFL 8am: Looks 1ft or less this am… Just got some power back, and internet… It usually takes about 6hrs from The southern buoys till a small line fills in. Maybe small when it first arrives. Definitely try and surf this afternoon- spread out and share, yeah right, starving surfers hoping to hit the Sunday buffet later. Definitely psyched for the forecast. Marco even though he is small really roughed up the chanel so that is what will be filling in today some Yucatan juice. Now that he’s out in the gulf his west side is his weak side and he’s small so after the channel swell it may get smaller but then more west as he strengthens before hitting LA. That will meet the incoming Laura if she can keep it together. Looks like a great surf week coming up for WFL, take your vacation now 🙂

Sunday 7am wfl good morning it does not seem like the waves have arrived yet. 003 just hit 5 ft at 10 seconds and it takes a while for the swell to get from that buoy to the coastline. Maybe someone else could give us a report this morning in the comments. I apologize but I have no electricity no internet- the power is out down here in the wake of Laura… I definitely think there will be good waves at some point today in wfl but it may take a bit to fill in… not sure of the ETA

WFL Tropical Surf Chances have gone way up. Photo: M-Dub.



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Saturday Surf Take 8am WFL From the aurasurf.com bunker on Disaster Island it’s the Live Laura Lockdown- (cue the music)… We are here in our yellow rain jackets and… Nada pasando ahora… but a butt ton of WX in the VI’s and on the way. I hustled last night to put the lawn furniture away at work and get ready and this am it’s still and steamy(we got waves)… good to be prepared. Hey Marco check this out(from NDBC 42056):
It’s only been blowing for 2 hrs but it’s got a chance. Marco is strengthening and his track is perfect, GFS 5 days out TOLD Ya! Now just sit back and wait for the south lines to start rolling in (tomorrow) Have a great day! I hope you guys score… You so freakin deserve it, such a loooooooooooong flat spell getting smahed by the FUJIWHARA, PU INSI! Wax em up! Details below updated… out…
The Official Fujiwhara Surf Forecast:
Thursday 8/20: 1ft SW waves, PM.
Friday 8/21: 1ft/knee high waves.
Saturday 8/22: 1ft SSE waves PM.
Sunday 8/23 1-2ft S waves filling in at best south swell spots(ETA?).
Monday 8/24: 1-2ft south waves.
Tuesday 8/25: Building SSE swell, waist to chest with SE side offshore winds.
Wednesday 8/26: Waist high south swell with offshore winds, plus at best spots.
Thursday 8/27: Knee high possible plus leftovers.
Friday 8/28: 1ft waves.
Saturday 8/29: Slow knee high west swell from Texas.

Friday Night at the Jetty. Venicejetty.com does it again with the best GC small wave coverage. Thanks Joey!

Friday 8am WFL Surf WX: Synopsis- A trough remains in the gulf. TS Laura has formed TD 14 is weak this morning without closed circulation. On the beach this am we have knee high sets at the best spots. Seas in the gulf are 2-4ft from the SW and waves 1ft ranger. These waves are from the trough action in the middle and eastern gulf. The details below get tweaked… Friday Notes: 1.The possibility exists for 2 cyclones to be in the gulf at the same time. I have never seen that happen. Looking at history they say it happened once in 1933. Tuesday would be the day if it was to happen again. 2. Will WFL get waves from a strengthening tropical storm in the channel? Lots of east wind on the top of 14. If 6ft south swell did pour into the gulf thru the channel late Saturday most of it would head to the panhandle, decay is a bummer- halve it and halve it again and you have a 1ft swell Sunday night so I think the Sunday forecast is a little too optimistic. In a situation like this you always get that little Cayo Hueso line in front of any swell. To summarize what I just said I think WFL will get small waves from the channel but it looks like Monday and not Sunday. This is the same system that sent waves up the Mona passage to Rincon which does not happen very easily it could send that same small swell to WFL from the channel. Have a good Friday… To quote one of Florida’s most famous rock stars: “The waiting is the hardest part”. Tom Petty. Get that grom on an LB in the mean time, shallow snad bar..The Official Fujiwhara Surf Forecast:
Thursday 8/20: 1ft SW waves, PM.
Friday 8/21: 1ft waves.
Saturday 8/22: 1ft SSE waves PM.
Sunday 8/23 1-2ft S waves filling in at best south swell spots(ETA?).
Monday 8/24: 1-2ft south waves.
Tuesday 8/25: Building SSE swell, waist to chest with SE side offshore winds.
Wednesday Evening 8/19 in NW PR:

We got a little wave from 97L. That’s a good sign for WFL. This was my surprise Wednesday evening sesh at Indy, knee to thigh but clean and so good 2 get back in the water. My 1st time surfing Indy in 5 months…


A wave! South swell at Indy.


Wed WFL Updater 8/19/20 8am: Light SSE flow today and a less than 1ft wind ruffle in St Pete this am. I like Levi and I’m super stoked on his videos and website, mad respect for him. What he does is good and necessary. What I’m going to write is going to be very brief. I am going to attempt to summarize 14 minutes of detailed analyzing… now: Do we have any well formed storms? No. Are the models well aware of the data and performing in a consistent trustworthy manner? No. What do we have? 2 tropical waves that look better on satellite this am. They have spin, they have convection. 97L which yesterday looked like a WFL wave maker has trended weaker today on the models. 98L also… The models seem to know as much as us looking at the satellite and guessing when it will wrap up. Check out Genevieve in the EPAC, that’s what a wave making storm is supposed to look like.
What has to happen for WFL waves? 97 has to form enough in the Yucatan Channel to spin south winds at 30mph for 6-8hrs at least to expect anything… Any little south line is going to have to fight increasing SE winds to get to WFL. If 97L does not develop it’s just a BOC wave getting a name right before it hits Tex/Mex border. 98L could bring another flood to PR like Isaias. The VI’s need that rain. Beyond that 98L is also supposed to go gulf side.
Surf forecast: If 97L fired up with south winds not east winds in the channel Saturday am- Sunday may see a south line esp PM… chances for 97L surf from the channel IMO 40/60.

When 98L gets in the gulf next week via the Keys building SSE wave on Monday/Tuesday. Yes WFL is on the verge of getting waves. Details are still cloudy. Have a good day back tomorrow.

Next week? SSE waves. Thanks Joey at venicejetty.com for the shot.


Tuesday 8/18/2020 7am WFL Surf Weather and Forecast: Faint south line less than 1ft and calm this am in St Pete with weak flow today for WFL, broken record about to change we hope… This morning the models are loco. All over the map. We have 2 waves to watch; Invest 97 and Invest 98. The GFS shows the front runner 97 passing below PR today and becoming a hurricane in the Yucatan channel in just 120hrs. Is that crack smoking or what? Yesterday the GFS did not develop this one until it got to the middle gulf. The EURO showed it weak also. For the record this Tuesday am both the EURO and the GFS have cyclones in the GOMEX within the next week but different scenarios for sure. In such a active season why do the models struggle? I’ve used these models for years and they usually do not flake so hard. I think the reason is this: The low pressures in the waves are broad and double barreled and that’s one reason the models flip flop. I also think there is a lot of SAL and dry, dusty Sahara air mixing right into the systems. My back balcony overlooks the Mona Passage here in PR and Isla Desecheo sits 11 nautical miles offshore. It’s my perfect reference for how much SAL is in the air currently. This Tuesday morning 8/18? I can’t see the island, it’s super dusty. It’s also 3-5degrees hotter than normal. Our avg rain chances have been 60%, today? 20-30%… so we definitely have a lot of dry air here right now. PWATS are 1.3 compared to 1.8 avg(no, PWATS is not a bad word, it’s precipatable water, look it up). Water temp here is 85.5, 84 on the N Coast… so not really that much hotter than avg normal, def hot enuf to fire these storms so that’s the report this am. The GFS Tuesday am Run scenario is kind of a dream come true for WFL surfers- Imagine a hurricane caressing the Yucatan Channel as it bounces off the Hotel Zone in Cancun and into the southern gulf heading NNW super slow at 8mph. It takes days to get to Texas sending swell to your beaches the whole while… Too good to be true. For Isaias 4 days out the GFS had him passing below us and bcing a tropical storm then it flip flopped to tracking N of the island and the EURO had him south. In the end Isaias did what the GFS originally said he would do and the EURO came in line and won the match while the GFS went off on a bender in TJ. Scary how dead on the models can be 5 days out. Summary: “Don’t ask me- I don’t Know” (who sang that one? ugh I’m becoming like Dbuh quoting songs every other second…)I’m sorry I tried to give you a fresh take your not going to read on weather.com- the reasons behind the weather but I don’t have a clue what is going to happen. I hope the GFS is right but I don’t want to say ‘wax em up!’. I gave 60/40 chances for tropical swell in WFL before 9/1 and this am that looks as on track as ever. That’s all I got, have a good day.

The view at dawn from the aurasurf.com office. There is an island out there not visible because of the Saharan Air Layer getting sucked into 97L.


Look Mon, no dust… Desecheo Sunset.




About the forecaster: My name is Micah Weaver. I’m from St Petersburg, Florida. I started forecasting for the WFL gulf in the mid 1980’s and continue to do so up to today. I currently live in Rincon, Puerto Rico. Thanks for visiting aurasurf.com


info@aurasurf.com

Little Malibu (Rincon) Surf Report and Forecast< About the forecaster: My name is Micah Weaver. I’m from St Petersburg, Florida. I started forecasting for the WFL gulf in the mid 1980’s and continue to do so up to today. I currently live in Rincon, Puerto Rico. Thanks for visiting aurasurf.com[/caption]