November Backdoor Front

Old film shot of Upham during the December, 1997 el nino. Photo: M-Dub.

Old film shot of Upham during the December, 1997 el nino.
Photo: M-Dub.

Friday 11/13/15 7am WFL Surf Outlook: Good Morning. Cool North winds today. 10-15knts in the open gulf at the moment but they are supposed to fire up to 20 during the day today. Right before dark you may find a small N line at best cold front spots. There is a chance a couple of the very best spots could get knee maybe thigh high very late today so keep an eye on it. Overnight the wind goes full on NE and blows any bump flat. Next week’s WX has flip-flopped and high pressure will maintain control with low pressure over the mid west stuck in place and unable to hit the gulf too good at this point. Next front after this one looks to be NEXT weekend. Have not had a chance to check out the Surfline outlook yet but I heard it will cheer you up(thanks Chris). At some point there will be a lot of surf. Could be soon as we head into late November. The solid el ninos I remember were late November into December and February also but we will see what happens this year.

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116 thoughts on “November Backdoor Front”

  1. evy alland

    AHA!!! I stuck my nose up in the air while running morning and thought, hummmm 10-15 from the west???? possibility for a ride on the log???? Came back; checked here…. and, : )) I see my set-up!
    “maybe a knee high lb wave on shallow sand bar late today.”
    Gracias mi amigo …. you are the compass of my surflife -bigsmile- I’d be LOST w/you & Aurasurf Shout out to ALL of US…… how many years have WE been together Micah???? OHANA IS AURASURF <3
    https://youtu.be/YvPBdeNSI-U

  2. evy alland

    Nothing great… but enough wave for play …SiestaK #9 , then I shifted down to Turtle … more of the same …good enough to get out and play, but nothing memorable
    … While scoping waves at Turtle, I met this guy… checking waves as well… at first I swore it was a Kelly Slater look alike – we chatted a bit – “do you know Aurasurf? ” yes he replied, then said his name was Ryan…… but, coming home and checking Slater pics — if it wasn’t him, it was his twin… wondering IF there’d be any chance it was Slater….

  3. Gulfian

    Love your site dude. Made me angry to see those words. Keep up the great work. Your site is special because of you, and it makes a difference in our surfing community.

  5. evy alland

    GoodMorning – thanks for the early post…. heading out to walk the dog in the MorningDark…. I kinda think there just might be a small bump up at Turtle this morning… otherwise — it’s Thursday to keep my eye on.

  6. RUSS-D

    Looking forward to the air temps, and the water temps dropping. I hope this El Nino will make for a GREAT winter season of surf for all of us. 🙂

  7. Kaia

    I missed the negative comments so I don’t have total context.. But I wanted to add my support too. This site is critical to the thing I love most! And I have learned a ton from the thoughtful forecasts and detailed comments on local weather. Without a doubt, I score more because of Aura. Thanks Micah!

  11. RUSS-D

    Evy, try getting a fleece rash guard to wear under your wetsuit. I learned this trick a few years ago, and on the really cold days, it helps a lot. You can get them from wetsuitwarehouse.com fairly inexpensively. A standard rashy will help, but nothing like the fleece does.

  13. Robbed72

    The discussion among all your boys back home MW is that she’s gonna cross MX but still have enough juice to throw us a wave. We are all talking about it happening. My confidence is pretty high. I’m just hoping and praying for a Tue / Wed event as I just so happen to be off on both of those days. Need to surf!

  14. RUSS-D

    could be an awesome “mysto” swell. I remember a few years ago winds blew from over Texas, straight across the Gulf, but the wind field stopped about 50-75 miles short of us. Bright sunny day, no wind, and real fun ground swell with hardly anyone knowing about it. 🙂

  15. Aber

    The wind fields of the gulf are looking pretty good. Pretty good indeed. There is so much west pointed at Florida right now!!!!! 12.5 ft , 10 seconds wsw at 42360. I hope the shoals don’t destroy the swell before it gets here.

    Locally if this thing barrels through here , there should be some opportunities at the south protected spots for some semi cleans. Even if it turns windy wends-Thursday there should be some underlying swell, and it’s warm so – stoked. Want to stay north and check the spots I used to surf circa mid 90s if possible.

    El Niño is real!

  17. RUSS-D

    boards are being loaded in the van, trying to duck out of work early, but I also have a 5 o’clock appt. Hoping to get some today, but have to stay local to N. Piney Town.

  18. evy alland

    Board in car….. bit sketchy with the rain…. Thanks for the early report…. also for mentioning the Red tide…..Blarg&Arvvy – I don’t get along w/ that stuff….

    1. admin Post author

      on the report from FWC the red tide looked centered around the venice jetties with lower concentrations N and south.

  22. GB

    I’m usually very sensitive to red tide and it only bothered me a slight bit at NJ today. I was out from 10:00-2:00. Very fun!!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. RUSS-D

    I am very glad y’all aren’t feeling too much, if any, red tide. That stuff keeps me out, and away from the water 100%. I hope it stays this way, and just dissipates, or goes back into the middle of the Gulf. I am stuck at work today, so only chance i have is this evening if there’s anything left. Have fun out there today surfers. It is nice to have waves again.

  25. RUSS-D

    I thought it was really fun, and more than I expected. I ended up surfing all afternoon on Tuesday, had to tell my company I was not coming back in for the day LOL. I didn’t make it out yesterday(Wed) though. All in all I would rate the waves a 7 out of 10. Crowd factor was kind of low as well, that right there will improve a swell every time.

  27. evy alland

    WELL….. MY LEFTOVERS were BIGGER & BETTER then in the photo : )))) & Laced w/ Red tide….but definitely some of the best rides of 2015 for me. My little sandbar…. God, I love that spot….. just throwing me sweet wave one after another all morning….everywhere else NADA….but right there, my own wave garden. Glad I have learned to wait until the conditions speak good for me…. my wait paid off…Also wore 1mm Neoprene front zip jacket….one of my favorite pieces of clothing I own…. over the cowboy boots –
    USUALLY I leave the brine on my skin for a few hours…. but I stink red-tide…Blarg

  28. RUSS-D

    No evy, there where a few people in fullsuits on Tuesday afternoon. I will not wear rubber until I am shivering cold, and turning blue. I really try to wait until the last possible moment to suit up. But I understand some people just get colder , much easier, than others. I’ve talked to people that just will not wear a suit no matter how cold, and others already wear ’em. If you need it, and it helps you stay comfy while keeping you out longer, then do it. 🙂 East Coast was a little cooler, than here, last weekend. Almost thought I would need my 1.5mm top.

  30. Robbed72

    It rated solid – where I was at in St. Pete it was really fun (Tuesday) … I wish I got the morning juice over the bridge though. Had to work in the morning … I got out around 3 pm and it was chest high solid at the local stomping grounds. Wed morning was disappointing … thought it would be bigger and better. All in all – I give it a 7.

  31. evy alland

    No Sue…. Make WAVES : )))) Called the Health Dept & then SRQ Parks & Recreation….making headway…Spoke with SRQ Dept. Head. He will now : )) be putting in requests for more testing sites….they can only post a sign at the test site, where a sample was taken….if they didn’t test 1/2 mile down, they can’t post an advisory sign – even though WE all know the bacteria isn’t ever “contained” in the water. We discussed which spots -beach public access ( Crescent, #9/10 , old dog beach ) – would be best….he took notes and he’s getting back to me -hopefully he will get the approval. If we can spend millions of dollars refurbishing the public beach amenities …surely there is money to ensure healthy conditions for our guests and Locals.

    1. admin Post author

      i heard sarasota has antiquated sewer lines which leak into the bay, anyone else heard that?

  32. evy alland

    Finnegan, Author of Barbarian Days writes an essay that NAILS IT.
    “Most surfers have home breaks that they come to know at a subgranular level of detail. Committed surfing is a deep immersion, literal and philosophical, in the ocean. The goal, if there is a goal, is a certain drenching experience of beauty. It’s quite possible to surf for decades without laying eyes on a surf contest.”
    “Twenty-seven years later, with Hawaiian culture being destroyed by changes that the missionaries helped set in motion, Bingham wrote with satisfaction of the “decline and discontinuance of the surfboard.
    I wish, selfishly, that surfing would become uncool, leaving the waves to a few die-hards. That’s not going to happen. What is going to happen, most likely, is the Olympics, and another wave of growth and commercialization. Hiram Bingham must be spinning in his grave.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/01/opinion/sunday/surf-for-love-not-for-gold.html

  33. michael jenks

    I have a 5’7 Channel Island Avg Joe 5 Fin FCS2 for sale if anyone is interest text me 813-390-2777… board is in Like New Condition and i just to big for me…

    1. admin Post author

      store it at my house Jenks… hahaha

      I am 100 pages into Finnegan’s book Barbarian Days thanks to Evy and it’s already captivated me and inspired me to look at surfing at different angles, not get jaded and focus on the important parts of surfing.

      sad what happened to Hawaiian culture back then, i beleive God wants us to embrace other cultures not destroy them

  34. evy alland

    some grom waves out there….but, fricking red-tide had me wheezing in no time…had to be sensible and leave
    Feeling – Very Cranky

  35. evy alland

    Captivating is a good word to describe the book …his perspective and ability to express in words what we see & feel-made this book so special for me, even in my small-wave kooky-grom way…. I felt understood….fear of a wave is fear of a wave, (ya I know his triple over-head is way different then my head high– but let me tell you,
    : )) my fear is equal) I laughed loud at the thoughts that ran through his head & how much they were the same for me….those moments of breath-taking beauty, those unwitnessed moments of perfection, to the hellicious moments of pitches, crashing, and crawling to the beach vomiting sea water. Love this book.

  36. Bfisch

    Mdub – My friend who is a marine scientist in Sarasota said that the old sewage lines leaking is an excuse. The real issue is that they cannot handle the amount of waste that comes in, so they dump the overage into Sarasota Bay. Either way, it is pretty nasty stuff! I can’t believe that our government cares more about economic growth & development, than sustainability.

    Fun little grom & LB wave yesterday and today.

  37. cb

    Sand bar out a Bunce’s has been fun past coupe days. Swell wraps in and the s winds are offshore. Knee – thigh high mush burgers are enough to paint a smile on your face (as long as your board is big enough.)

    1. admin Post author

      I really dig that sand bar outside bunces in my old boat, cool place, lots of fish, imagine it on a groundswell

      Bfisch makes sense, whats the pop of SRQ now? glad u found some waves

  38. Bfisch

    More small clean waves this morning. A small groundswell was showing up every 10 minutes. Red tide is not too bad.

  39. evy alland

    thanks for the update Bfisch…. hankering for some lil ‘ting….had a feeling there’d be a bump…wondering about tomorrow…. red tide snuffs my motivation….

  40. Bfisch

    The city of Sarasota only has just over 50,000 but the metropolitan area has close to 1/2 million. Lots of growth causing many problems with infrastructure. Hopefully I can move my family to a sustainable island one day…

  41. Robbed72

    Here’s some good advice: buy the new wetsuit you have been wanting to get now … because the water is gonna get cold soon. It always amazes me how fast we go from “trunkable” to “vest” to “spring” to “rubber all over” … by December, we’ll need ’em.

  43. evy alland

    BFISCH gave me the giggles …. Jack GOES POLAR BEAR…. NO rubber…..
    Felt those southie winds on my morning run…., strong enough to make a bump – definitely going to check, these are the last weeks before the neoprene becomes a necessity…

  45. JB

    Jetty had some fun thigh sets yesterday eve, real shallow sand bar. The surf film fest in NSB last weekend was super rad. Watching vids with an auditorium full of surf fans is such a unique experience. Who gonna win the title? I’d love to see owen win it but Mick is a machine

    1. admin Post author

      thanks for the update JB, surfing lots of lefts here by myself can’t wait for you guys to get down…

  46. Bfisch

    Super awesome waves EC yesterday! Oil slick glass, low tide, with head plus A frame bowls on the peak with long lines through the inside. Mid November in bordees with 82 degree clear water and sunny blue skies. So Dreamy, had to pinch myself… Today, stuck behind my desk for 12 hours.

  47. Chris

    If you haven’t already read the Surfline winter outlook and want to boost your mood ten fold GO READ IT

  48. G

    Crazy forecast right now for the end of November. That’s way out and we shouldn’t believe El Cracko models.

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