Weekly Outlook

Tuesday am.

Tuesday am.

Tuesday 7am for WFL: In the near term high pressure will dominate keeping the winds out of the east with flat conditions. Elevated trade flow makes for nice late summer WX in FL and good beach fishing with rain chances increasing as this week rolls on. So nice WX but no surf. For some reason the GFS is just completely sold on low pressure emerging from the Yucatan early next week. So what we have to figure out is why? and is the GFS on drugs and out to lunch on this? The GFS tends to spin after 5 days so it could be onto something or it could be making something happen where it’s not. Looking at this am’s satellite the elevated trades north of Venezuela in the Caribbean pile up clouds near Panama. This energy piling up in the western Caribbean eventually pulls N and strengthens. I can see it happening it’s totally CLIMO but why now? This has happened all summer and normally the energy goes right out into the Pacific and forms and send surf all over the Pacific. That’s what has been happening since May. This is the first time the energy gets pulled N and heads into the WFL window. So if it happens and I say 50/50 it would be a def pattern change.

We had a great weekend in Vieques. I’ll be back later with a little write up…

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All fins are for future boxes. Price includes shipping. From L to R: Black rocket keel twin fins $35. White T1 twin fins honeycomb glass $30. Blue True Ames Keel twin fins $35. Red glass, black carbon JC thruster pair (not including thruster fin) $25. Fins are used and may have small nicks, ready to surf. Contact: aurasurf@gmail.com


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78 thoughts on “Weekly Outlook”

  3. evy alland

    while we wait for waves….from the attic -NewYorker 1992, William Finnegan’s Brilliant & Classic piece – Doc’s Games. There’s a surfer mentioned in the article, Edwin Salem, an Argentine who was part of the SF Maverick scene. I met him in CR ( his Mistress is SalsaBrava) when I lived in Puerto Viejo…. we worked together on some environmental issues and became friends. Truly a larger then life person. I found this piece after reading several excerpts from Finnegan’s new book Barbarian Days….and wanted to know a bit more about the author.
    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1992/08/24/playing-docs-games-part-one

  5. jack

    I just read that for the first time last week, Evy. Someone had written a book review and linked to the Finnegan piece in it.
    Before reading it I thought I was the only one who looked at anything double-overhead and up with any amount of trepidation or fear. And when I go out anyway, I go with the same weird resignation and that universal remark, “Might as well get it over with.”

  6. Chris

    I do a lot of free diving / spearfishing I’m comfortable in up to about 20-25 ft of water I’m going to take a free diving certification class where they teach you how to conduct yourself under water and stay relaxed, teach you how to increase your CO2 tolerance and stuff like that supposedly after the class you should be able to dive up to 66ft . I’m thinking this will help my confidence in bigger surf I get gulfcoastitis after about 8-10 ft I was wondering if anyone has taken a diving class before or knows someone who has??

    1. admin Post author

      they have a waterman class here in Rincón in the summer but it costs like $500 plus… at the end, the final test is to be sunk like 60ft with a rubber mask over your head and you have to make it back to the surface, no tanks. I can barely get down 20ft and my sinuses kill me… the guy who does the cali pr blog took the class, summer of 2014 and he said it helped a lot, we had big waves in october and November and he was charging, one day sandy bch was 10ft and heavy… tubing and he got some great barrels, only guy out. also he surfed tres at 15 plus and felt way more confident so those waterman classes work for sure. some guy grabbed his leg at tres and almost drown him freaking out, some people should not be out there… working out helps also. sometimes I think the swells here in the winter can be too consistent, the period is not long enough. the waves are coming from the continent so the sets are relentless. We had a solid LP NNE at the end of April with double OH sets maybe slightly plus and the sets were 20 minutes apart and i caught my biggest wave of the winter… my deal is I dont like getting pounded and held down but I gotta shake it, hopefully if I work out this winter will be better, but gulfitus sucks and it dosent go away with age… somebody ask Ashton Goggins he was charging huge surf in San Francisco a few months back…

  7. Chris

    Thanks MW that’s my goal for the winter to catch a 15+ bomb at tres. I’m training in the gym right now 4 days a week I’m going to take the class in October or November I’m 20yo now so I figure if I’m going to charge now and the next few years is the time I’ve surfed solid dogmans 8ft+ and I’ve surfed popoyo at 10 ft I’m confident in my surfing ability But samething you said getting pounded by a 15-20 ft wave is pretty serious. I’ve got my mind set to it I just need to get my body in the samplace.

    1. admin Post author

      I got Tres all figured out dude…. It only breaks a few times a year so buy you ticket a week or so out most likely january or February… Mark has a bungalow up the street for like $65 a night. Declining swell, low tide, mid day if you want to avoid getting hammered.. 10-12ft would be fun, double o plus. make sure you have a photog to document it. The most important thing at tres is to be able to hold your breath a long time if you get a 2 wave hold down you could be down almost 30 seconds getting jostled the whole time. good thing about tres is the channel, need a 7’6 or bigger board they rent them at mar azul. bring it Chris I would be stoked to see you charge that.

  8. Chris

    That’s what I’m aiming for. I will def send you a email around January- February to link up to get the shots. And for all the accommodation and Gun rental. Appreciate it Mw aurasurf rules

  9. evy alland

    GoodMorning…. GREAT READ here this morning….really enjoyed the comments. Jack, ya know while reading that piece, your name came to mind. I had a feeling you’d enjoy his writing. In my small wave way, I related to those fears as well, seeing them expressed in words was surprisingly comforting….We are not alone w/ our Demons out there; I am not the only one who paddles out whispering under my breath“Might as well get it over with.”
    **smile** my chest high is your double overhead…. nevertheless — the brain processing is very similar…and the drive & ability to get past that fear seems to be something that bonds us…..the desire for the wave, the ride –is our commonality – no matter the level- we share.
    I never understood why the guys who are around when I’m surfing give me the time of day. Honestly I suck…. I am a bit more then Queen of the Foamies these days, love going down the line on lefts….I’ll probably never ever see the inside of a barrel *sigh*, and I’ really suited for Waikiki waist high waves, but the guys are always nice… after reading Finnegan’s piece I began to understand perhaps why… it’s not my style, it’s not my ability… it’s probably because they see me climb over that trepidation, they see me take poundings, they watch me struggle through a breaker for 10 minutes, they quickly just glided through, ( I see them laughing LOL) …..So while I’m often embarrassed by my surfing…perhaps when Denis said…”Girl you just took a whooping, you going out for more??” it’s my going back out that really counts.
    Having the opportunity to hang w/ Edwin Salem ( he’s got some great photos on my FB page under Finnegans’ Essay) he’s a LION of a man, hands the size of my head… the sea has beaten him up quick a bit. Nearly blind in one eye ( retina detached and complications from Dengue twice) he still surfs Salsa Brava… as he puts it, like a blind man feeling his way, has a special board that’s a tad forgiving if he’s late…Salem misses his glory days….yet, no matter how worn his bones are…he paddles out when surf is up.

  11. JB

    Saw that Chopes is supposed to be decent size at beginning of waiting period then taper off but that could change. Great big wave training talk. Personally I don’t feel the need to ride a monster wave but I’d definitely like to get legit barreled. Any secret left barrels down there MW?

    1. admin Post author

      survivor, sal si puedes and that rare left near at my spot that o-dub got tubed on 🙂

  13. DW

    Evy, your comment of 8/13/15 – 9:25 struck a chord with me. The fact that you stay stoked to give it a go, despite what you say are limited abilities, is what the allure of surfing is all about! My guess is you underestimated yourself. For me as I approach 60, I find my physicality and surfing abilities are defintely in decline but stay at it. Still have the skills and experience but the old body tends to let the mind down sometimes. That said I still get a good ‘un or two now and then and it only takes one good wave to make a session. Trust me on this guys…you young bucks will realize this over time, which flies by incredibly fast.

    FL surf forecast looks dismal to time to go fishing. There are reds and snook in the Pine Isl. Sound calling my name…

    1. admin Post author

      super comments guys, thanks! I’m 45 this season I wanna ride a twin and just draw cool lines and go fast and fly like a bird by myself away from the big crowds… that’s my goal…

  14. evy alland

    Married To Surfing: Talking to William Finnegan About His Barbarian Days
    http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/married-to-surfing-talking-to-william-finnegan-about-h-1723693508

    another great interview w/Finnegan – especially liked this last paragraph speaking of Kelly.
    “So he came out of the water, a few years ago, after winning this contest called the Pipe Master. He’s won 11 world championships, something like that. And he’s coming out of a 10-12 foot pipeline, and someone’s asking him, “How does that feel, you’ve won another championship, another $100K,” and he’s trying to give the interview, but he keeps looking over his shoulder, at the set coming through. He was alone out there with another guy before, but now the water’s full of people. And he’s a pro, but he can’t stop looking. He keeps saying “F**k! AHHH! NO, THE NEXT ONE’S EVEN BETTER!”
    And the reporter is like, “Kelly, yoohoo,” and he’s just staring, and he shakes his head, and the guy says, “Kelly, you just won $100K,” and he says, “I’d give it back to have another half-hour with two guys out there.” He’s dead serious; any surfer would say he means it. And so, it’s not the same as soccer or basketball. People would not say, “I’ll give you all the money I have to get back on that court.” But with surfing, people will. They’ll pay anything to get to that place. That’s the difference.”

    and I can say ….Those of us here…WE live the difference….
    that said– In Appreciation for ALL the work Micah does providing us this really wonderfully place to get weather, waves and good speak …BANG THAT DONATE BUTTON DUDES !!!!

  16. michael jenks

    Will do for sure!! Wish we had a certain PR Photog with us!! Can’t wait till Dec PR trip!!

  18. Chris

    What a joke I swear the judges give medina a extra .5 – 1 every time he claims john johns barrels were much more square with clean exits stridder said it himself. Also Josh Kerrs 9.67 yesterday should have been a 10 across the board the judging makes it hard for me to watch sometimes still epic waves though

  21. RUSS-D

    I hope invest 96 stays together, and gives one of these Coasts waves next week. I start my vacation this Friday and could use some swell for it. 🙂

  22. chauncy

    any recommendation as to where to paddle out in central florida on tuesday/wednesday for danny swell? heading over and not sure of a good spot that will pick up a lot of the sse swell. thanks!!

  24. evy alland

    Morning all.

    Interesting read in the 5 a.m. discussion:

    Danny is moving westward and has maintained its previous motion of
    275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged
    from the previous advisory, but the new forecast track is heavily
    dependent on Danny remaining a tropical cyclone as it moves through
    the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The model
    guidance, especially the GFS and ECMWF, made a significant
    southward shift on the latest cycle due to those models weakening
    the cyclone fairly quickly after 24 hours, with Danny becoming a
    vertically shallow remnant low that then moves westward within the
    easterly trade wind flow and into the Caribbean Sea by 36 hours.
    Given that the 18-20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear
    that is currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change
    during the next 48 hours, Danny is forecast to be a tropical cyclone
    during that time and and not weaken as much of the global models
    are suggesting. As a result, Danny is forecast remain north of the
    GFEX and TVCN model consensus model tracks, and begin to make a
    turn toward the west-northwest after 24 hours. The NHC track
    forecast was nudged a little south of the previous advisory track,
    mainly due to the slight southerly initial position.

    Question: will Danny have the potential to clear away the dry air for 98L which already looks like a healthy seedling?

  26. gtstommy

    CJ! I love that guy, such class and super chill! I am so stoked he made the semis. It would’ve been all time if he finaled or won, but I think once he made the semis, he felt pretty complete. He took a lot of waves, but he seemed just beyond happy! So happy for him and his next adventure! That last wave, though, ahhhh! He was sooooo close! I was yelling so at my TV, my non-surfing wife was pissed! Oh well, just so stoked he made the heats and in the fashion he did! What a great comp, despite the fact it wasn’t “pumping” by Chope’s standards, still some super critical waves!

  27. DW

    Watched the video you made…great work MW…very professional looking to me. That song by the Replacements about Alex Chilton is an all time favorite…like the lyrics say “Im in love with that song…’ 🙂

  29. DW

    As master Po say…patience grasshopper. Let things play out a few more days. Unless the whole shebang gets in the Gulf I doubt we will get diddlysquat. As today’s models suggest more likely it goes N east of FL and mid-week looks good over there. That said it could just fizzle like Danny…or strengthen and b-slap the peninsula.

  30. BenK

    Take it easy down there Micah and stay safe. She looks to be ramping up a little bit this afternoon and getting a little better organized.

  31. Tommy Daniels

    Thinking about you guys down there. May you get the much needed rain you need and hopefully no problems when you wake. And also be blessed with good surf after her passage!! Sending good vibes to the Weaver fam!!!! Keep me updated, btw ever find out about WD???

  32. RUSS-D

    wishing you and your family the best of luck down there on the Island MW. I hope you all get through it with little to no damage. Hoping your power stays on as well.

  33. DW

    Ditto the other’s comments MW…best wishes for you and yours, it looks to be SW of PR now and moving away, good luck to DR to…they’re next.

  34. evy alland

    EASY CHICA….. loved that opening line : )))))) – LOL I must be waved starved….. that said…. Erika marks the first time the Hurricane Candle will be lit…. Dome of Protection over your casa and loved ones Micah….Prayers Up 4 all in Erika’s Path.

  36. OriginalJud

    Welcome to the 89 degree bathwater of the Gulf of Mexico. Westward the tide, westward she sails.

  37. evy alland

    – OriginalJud…. my thoughts exactly…..warm water in the pot might make for some Wave Soup

    Micah… your words – ooooboy did they ever touch my SurfMom heart.

  38. Robbed72

    Katrina …. 10 years … seems like yesterday. Arguably the best GC that I have ever seen / surfed. That red tide was gnar though!!

  39. evy alland

    Dang…. I had sooooo hoped we’d get some lil tidbit…. probably going to snitch out in between tasks and look anyway…..just to prove it to the little voice in my head that won’t shut-up

  40. evy alland

    I must have looked pitiful yesterday…. ( I did leave the board in the car) walking, driving from spot to spot DESPERATELY looking for some little nuggie to ride…. I went every where…. NADA
    It was bonkers to even think there would even be a lil ‘ting….. but there was no shutting up that little voice of “maybeeee”.
    Anyway… taking the board outta the car this morning… I give up.
    Thankful we have this site to visit…..

  42. DW

    Well the Gulf got skunked by two named storms and left me in dry dock, would have been piddle if we got anything at all…typical. Now the EC did get some nice swell at the right time and place. Considered a day trip this weekend but opted for honey-dos instead. My son lives in NSB and said both Sunday and Monday were real fun there and also at Villano in St Aug. The Surfline morning vids of Poles in Jax had me itchin’. At least some surfed good waves while I stayed home and painted…doh!

  44. DW

    The radar shows a little swirl off Pinellas County…are the remnants of Erica tryin’ to pull a fast one on us or is it just my imagination? The Egmont buoy at 1:50pm shows 3.3′ @ 5 sec from 204 degrees, so it is pointed in the right direction. Also, the Sunset cam showing a lil’ choppy wave albeit mighty small. So if it continues to build maybe a LB session after work?

  46. evy alland

    Blarg!!!!! I missed that bump yesterday…. I saw Ericito nailed it : )))) , just couldn’t snitch away DANG

  47. DW

    Well that was a pleasant surprise. My hunch paid off at a spot in Redington where knee-thigh high lefts peeled off nicely from 5:30 to 6:30 yesterday. Seemed to pick up as tide dropped out…LB heaven, at least the Gulf variety. The crowd was me and a tourist couple in inner tubes with flippers and masks!?. Nothing like what they got eastside but I’ll take the scraps thank you.

  49. evy alland

    Shout-out to Ericito !!!! I miss yesterdays little bump, but after reading his description…I figured to get off my whine & go out ….. Thankful I did…. yes they were little, but they sure were pretty…. on the low tide bump up on the sandbar… 2 hours worth of solid practice…. some lefts, some rights and…for the first time…. weight on a slight bent back leg and point the toe move…. executed perfectly, wave after wave…. now I want something bigger & faster to try that move out…. perhaps WE SHALL BE ‘GRACED’ !!!!

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