I was asked to comment on el niño, now forecast to be a strong event. For WFL a strong el niño usually means storms blasting into WFL as you can see in the track above. Usually this would begin in October, now 2 and a half months away. A strong el niño for WFL usually equals rainy, soggy weather with above avg surf chances.
This spot goes off in summer.
I think the reason why the surf has been so elusive in WFL is the storm tracks have moved farther north. Take last week’s trough for example, back in the day that trough would’ve sank farther into the gulf and dug a bit harder. We have another trough forecast due late weekend and it also is hung up too far north. It seems to be global warming has moved many of the WX patterns to the north and things are not lining up as the used to. Not that it was ever surf central but there does seem to be a lack of WX. Bill lined up horrible, that should’ve been a WFL slam dunk. The trade belt of ESE and SE winds has been farther north also. Just a theory I have as to why the patterns are like this. The saving grace is supposed to be a solid fall with el niño low pressures headed into the gulf, we shall see. I have been pimping NSI as a summertime option but noone seems to be biting. In the comments our readers would rather do other activities than drive 3hrs for those waves. Has it become too crowded? I swear when I was in WFL last month the population had grown a lot, was I imagining it? Tell us what you think in the comments. What’s the solution to the FL dilemma? My PR dilemma: I had a shot at driving up to Isabela yesterday am to surf some thigh high wind-swell 50 minutes from my house. I slept in instead… I haven’t surfed since that day in AMI save for a couple knee high waves at Domes with my 7 yr old. I just can’t get jacked up for 7 second Jobos. My car is 20yrs old, gas is expensive and the risk/reward does not factor. Jobos has a bunch of 15yr old jack weeds that will snake every wave if you happen to be out there when they are in the summer. That leaves Middles and Secret Spot, totally doable but I want a longer period and leave the windows down. Short period on the north coast is not even that fishable, it does not hit the reef with any power at 7 seconds. Patillas/inches is 4hrs driving for me to surf thigh high waves with a bunch of boogers. I had an awesome out island option for summertime but can’t seem to make it over there. So there’s my excuses… I guess it’s just better to quit surfing for the time being, I can’t stop thinking about it though, tough problem, what’s your solution? Costa Rica would be nice…
Don’t stop believing. Stephen So Pitted.
Cool and calm this morning with light rain in some areas. I’m watching the models for next week. The models have been so flakey that I don’t even want to mention speculation other than to say there is small chance next week could be more interesting for WX in the GOMEX. Lets leave it at that and we’ll talk more tomorrow.
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