Saturday 9am WFL: The GFS has a low forming as early as Tuesday next week. The EURO is slow to react and doesn’t form it till later next week.
There is a High in the ATL forecast to keep it away from WFL even more than with Helene so this one could make surf and no WFL destruction, ETA on waves maybe next Friday am… I know many of you have suffered damage but one of my best friends Ronnie, lives east of 4th street near Gandy Blvd in North St Pete and he got 2-3feet of water in his house. They lost everything and have to tear the house drywall down. I feel so bad for them I could barely sleep last night. His house was uninsured for flood… I’m going to give him some money for sure and if you want to jump in with me, use the Paypal button on the right or Venmo. All donations are for the Ronnie and his family to help defer their post hurricane expenses to get their home back, thanks guys!

Friday 9/27 from aurasurf to WFL: guys Im so sorry that happened to you. The Beaches look pretty devastated in areas. A lot of my friends in St Pete got flooded pretty bad. Going to be time to pick up the pieces. Does anyone know what beaches are open? I saw extensive damage in Manatee Cnty, so sorry guys… I know how it feels… It will get better, it will get back to normal… There is another storm showing later next week as patterns repeat but this one does not look to be as bad as Helene, maybe it will send some surf and no destruction. Thoughts and prayers and good vibes coming your way WFL, hang in there!

Thursday WFL Helene Day 7am: If your on your way to the beach early you may get some, quality is iffy(super sideshore) but it’s waves, a jetty would definitely help. Helene is a monster on satellite and chucking ninja squalls at TB that appear out of nowhere torquing into the gulf and ready to wreck destruction. Careful guys, when you go home, hug your kids and thank God this thing is passing 80-100 miles offshore. I’ll update the surfing details way below the forecast blog…

Wed 6am DP WFL: No matter how bad the damage is to the TB area tomorrow it could’ve been 10x worse if Helene came ashore. She’s looking monstrous this morning on satellite, record breaking for her jump in intensity. My uncle used to live in Steinhatchee and I have a good friend in Live Oak, another in Tallahassee. Poor pine forests, better than the super populated Pinellas County. Can you imagine? I can’t even think about it, my daughter Julie lives in St Pete now so I even more so have a vested interest in seeing this buzz saw stay left and so that is some semi good news this Wednesday am. 2 points: 1. Helene is in the window now shooting major seas into the GOMEX. Swell from Helene is not forecast by the models to arrive today. What you could see is a knee to thigh little Cayo Hueso hard angled south line at best south facer the last hour or 2 before dark today, it’s very flat this am… 2. Yesterday, the models had Helene flying towards the Big Bend at 20, now today that has slowed down a bit and if the beaches are open and your up for it you could DP tomorrow am and get some hurricane swell before it all goes to pot. Helene is forecast to pass about 100 miles offshore WFL, with her right side the gnarlier side. Although if she goes major as forecast the buzz saw effect is way more present. You have this very tight core with catastrophic destruction where the eye passes(like a massive tornado) but dropping rather quickly way out from the eye. So apologies for not being able to completely tag down your local WX at 7am on Thursday. If it’s super squally and south winds at 40 forget about it but if it’s kind of clear and SE at 20-30 you could get some waves for a couple hours tomorrow. In case of the latter, it could be pumping with 6ft walls peeling left along the beach and strong side offshore winds depending on where you go… If you get out there, take some pics but I think the feeling today (as not 1 spaghetti strand shows Helene beating the Atlantic wedge high pushed back towards Florida by en early season middle ocean storm in the ATL) is gratitude as WFL looks to dodge another bullet errr bomb…
Tuesday 9/24/24 6am WFL Report below…

Tuesday 8am Updater: It’s not looking good. 3 items today… 1. The storm is late to develop and move so now Wednesday may not have surf. 2. The storm is now forecast to be a major and the Tampa Bay area could see 50knt winds. 3. Thursday may be too stormy to surf… The PTC is taking it’s time- today it was supposed to consolidate but it is in reality weak, disorganized with light winds. So now tonight going into tomorrow it’s supposed to form and become a tropical cyclone. At least ALL the models every last strand of spaghetti show this storm staying offshore WFL, no direct hit. That is thanks to high pressure in the Atlantic, WFL will just get a lashing and an ugly stay at home day Thursday… I hope you don’t get Ernesto’d and that your power stays on. We took the side of that storm and lost power for 5 days but that’s PR. In conclusion- not really a surfing storm in appearance right now, bad timing, bad track. Maybe some hardcore guy could sneak out there Thursday at dawn and get a couple but this is too close for comfort. Details below are updated.

Monday WFL 6am: Bad news this am as now 97L is coming closer to WFL. 2 models: The GFS and the EURO… The GFS has a stronger cat 2 or 3 hurricane passing 50-100 miles offshore WFL. The EURO has a Cat 1 passing 100plus miles offshore. The GFS has been unfortunately more accurate this summer with Debbie, Ernesto and Francine. The EURO has been sleepy and slow to react, wake up and recognize the pattern, IMO. Reality not Models- This am there is a massive burst of convection with spin but it’s moving NE towards the Caymans. That could be the reason the models are shifting right. The storm 97L/Helene is consolidating farther east. Tuesday/tomorrow is the day the models say it will get it together and bc a full on cyclone. The NHC needs to make this thing a PTC yesterday and start posting tracks and warnings. 1 positive- the spaghetti models show the storm passing offshore WFL. Right now WFL could be looking at 30-50knt winds on Thursday. Let’s hope that’s all. Surf? A little too close for comfort Wed PM or Thursday am early before the WX goes downhill but the shift this Monday is more nervous preparation than getting ready for another swell. Stay left stormy!!
16ft WFL seas: Whats the biggest wave you’ve ever seen in WFL? For me? Like 10ft close to double overhead for me in Bradenton on a couple different times over the willdecades. WFL usually maxes out at 6-8ft. Anything bigger breaks way offshore. Do you have a different opinion? What’s the biggest WFL wave you’ve ever seen? LMK in the comments. My forecast usually just says head high plus bc anything bigger than that topples over before making it to your sand bar.

Sunday 9/22 WFL waiting on the tropics 8am: Blob of clouds off Nica this morning is unimpressive. ETA’s: The storm is supposed to consolidate and form going into Tuesday. The first waves would be late Wednesday at best south facers only, small Cayo Hueso SSE swell, not the actual hurricane swell. Thursday am is the hurricane swell and the best chance for clean surf. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate during the day Thursday, you may need a jetty. Friday and Saturday look big and onshore. Updating details below, GO BUCS!!
Saturday 6am WFL: This morning disorganized storms show a slight rotation offshore Nicaragua. All the models(Warning- mucho acronyms coming) show formation and a TC in the GOMEX next week. I’m leaning towards the GFS solution bc that model has been more accurate for me during Ernesto, Debbie and Francine. There may be a small log line on Wednesday but the real waves show up on Thursday, maybe not early but during the day. Here’s the point: You may get a window of clean waves Thursday or even Friday am before it gets stormy and choppy and during that window is when you want to surf. This event looks more stormy and less perfect than Francine but stoked to have more waves and no destruction hopefully it goes in the LA swamp. Details updated below Moses 🙂

Friday 8am WFL Surf Chances: I think whats cool is that both models show the formation of the next low pretty far west so that no matter how fast and how well it develops the south winds are in the channel(lining up well for at least half a day of clean swell) so some type of channel swell looks a little more likely each day. Today, in reality there is a big blob over Nica and CR, part in the Pacific and part in the Caribbean. Everything pools in the area and eventually starts to spin later next week. The models are sure of it. Yesterday, I talked about a small south line Thursday and the ETA on waves around Friday am and that looks likely if the blob gets going. More tomorrow, I’m limited this morning as the local internet is down(in the middle of the Jets game last night!) and I’m working off a tethered phone. I’ll update over the weekend when the wi-fi is back.
Thursday 6am Watching the NW Caribbean: The NW Caribbean is really clear right now but that area is supposed to become the place for major weather next week. Its something the models are calling for 5 days out and plus… But the NHC is upping the odds… The GFS shows small south lines late next Thursday and some channel swell on Friday but the EURO is more like Saturday/Sunday and not as strong. The GFS has been pretty accurate this summer and is bending hard on a gulf hurricane for days now, so keep your late next week schedule flojo just in case this forecast verifies and also check your hurricane prep…
Wed WFL 7:30am: Both models have shifted left over the last 2 days, making the next low go gulf-side and not up the EC. This is way out so a lot can change, we are talking a weeks time. Point being behind that there is more trouble in the NW Caribbean to end September so there may be more waves coming to WFL. I would say 60% chance for more hurricane swell in WFL before October 2nd. Also a chance someone is eventually going to get hit so check your preparation. There is no dominant high pressure, no strong fronts, no solid pattern steering flow with this one so who knows where it’s going at this point… Slightly Cooler WFL WX this weekend, I’m so Jelly!!! Here in PR, this is our hottest time of the year, 77 and a breeze this am but yesterday in the afternoon it hit 94!! And Amazon humid too. Heat advisories and super hot times in the Caribbean right now.
Monday 9/16/24 WFL: The week starts out with very light flow. By the end of the week as low pressure blobs near SC, winds will start to back to the N and then NE on Saturday and dew points are forecast to fall. Kind of a weak backdoor front is expected and that may bring more comfortable humidity levels and a breeze this weekend so that is exciting for WFL. As far as waves go nothing is expected with weak flow and then offshore flow over the weekend. Hard to see the next weaves at this point… It’s pretty common to experience a period of no WX behind a hurricane like Francine so that is where we are at, calm gulf but a chance for slightly cooler WX next weekend, we’ll take it. Next update: Wednesday.

Details by Diaco updated 9/26
Saturday 9/21 calm.
Sunday 9/22 calm.
Monday 9/23 calm.
Tuesday 9/24 calm.
Wednesday 9/25 1ft southy with SE winds at 15plus, 1-2ft at best south facers late day.
Thursday 9/26 Head high plus at dawn becoming VAS during the day Thursday, SE and S winds at 20-40plus, becoming very stormy.
Friday 9/27 Chest to head high plus SW wind-swell, choppy with SW winds at 15-20, dropping to waist high by Friday night.
Saturday 9/28 Knee to thigh high choppy, dropping PM, onshore W winds at 10.