Saturday 10/12/24 WFL Updater: 2nd day of the models saying no more gulf storms so that’s good! A big high pressure will move down next week blocking the Caribbean storm from coming into the GOMEX. Once things settle in a few days the clean-up effort should get under way with good Florida fall WX. Best cold front spots on Wednesday could have a small 1-2ft N wave on the right time and tide with NNE winds and clean conditions. Hang in there guys. Take a few hours to grieve man you’ve been thru a lot. It’s better to get it out now, no shame, this sucks… Next Update Monday, Go Bucs!!

Friday 8am WFL Updater: 73 this morning and a 65 dewpoint, breezy… Must feel nice out… Good news this am: The latest is next weeks low is now expected to move into Centro and miss the GOMEX so that is good. It makes sense with strong high pressure blocking it. We see on the maps a cold front passage next Wednesday, 5 days from now that has NNE winds and 1-2ft surf. I hope you and yours are well and starting to recover from a horrible hurricane season. Jake at the Compound says the shop is ok and they are having a huge party to celebrate the end of hurricane season Nov 30… Hang in there guys!!

Thursday 8am Milton in the Atlantic Ocean: Any reports? Do you have power, water, septic? From 1000 miles away the big news we see up here is: the Trop lost it’s top, a crane tumbled into the Tampa Bay Times, a water main broke in St Pete and 2,000,000 w/o power but no coastal flooding in Tampa. What’s your version? The latest on the the storm next week is there is definitely supposed to be another low pressure near the Yucatan but we don’t know where it will go yet… Start the clean-up, chances are small it will repeat at this point. I’m checking the pattern and maps every day. Caribbean not out of the woods yet either with storms still coming off Africa… Buoy is 7ft from the NW not that anyone wants to surf.
Wed 9am WFL D-Day: Morning, i cant find a single WFL cam working this am, must be the power is off already. 13 short days after Helene, WFL is under the gun from Monster Milton… I’m wishing you guys the best and I’ll try and help as much as I can afterwards… For those who stayed it’s going to be a rough ride, stay indoors in a safe place. Do the best you can, be the best you can… At least the WX is forecast to be cool behind Milton. The worst news is there is another low on the models again showing up next week also so we can’t give the 100% all clear, lets clean up. After Helene we looked safe, Milton was supposed to fade into Mexico and instead it’s coming for WFL. With this stupid pattern locked in we can’t say this is going to be over for sure yet… Hang in there… Notes: Milton’s eye has filled in at least temporarily and the GFS is calling for the pressure to rise today, so hoping to catch a cat 3 break south of the bay but all bets are off and we’ll be watching the radar late tonight hoping for the best.

Tuesday 10/8 WFL 10am Milton Take: So the 1st front that kept Milton down by Mexico is lifting out and a second front coming in from Texas is what is supposed to pick Milton up and throw him at WFL. Milton was headed due east, expected to turn NE and then east close to WFL. That’s 2 turns in the track and if the turns are off, the landing spot could be a little different. Still both model camps are locked in on a very close to the mouth of Tampa Bay landing for the last 2 days now. They totally agree… I was thinking about Charlie(2004) who drifted/turned right on his way paralleling the WFL coastline, hoping that maybe Tampa Bay could be spared the worst. We are about 36hrs from landfall, time to be decisive and go by what the local authorities are saying. The scariest thing I’ve read comes from the NWS Ruskin local statement, this is from the storm surge warning:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
– Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
– Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
– Widespread power and communications outages(this is what happened to Puerto Rico from Maria 2017).
good stuff: The next storm we talked about is late and is staying down in the Caribbean on todays model run for a week from now…

Monday Weather Blog coming below…

Monday 9am WFL Wave WX: It looks gnarly- Milton decided to take a trip down Mexico way. Check out the destruction in Merida after tomorrow and you know what’s coming. As for swell, some small swell could show later tomorrow, more swell on Wednesday… Notes: Sorry, but down in the Caribbean we have tons of experience with these hurricanes. They cause me a lot of anxiety. But it could be worse you could live in Ukraine or Lebanon or Palestine. This is just really bad WX interrupting life. So take a deep breath and make a list(my typical list)- Board up, gas for the generator, oil changed? Sand bag if applicable put important docs in a safe place, put anything important up on blocks if it matters, park your vehicle someplace safe, save some water… That’s my usual list… Be careful! Many people get hurt getting ready, watch your back and be careful on ladders etc, get some help. You need to be at your best as a human to share and help others. It’s a big test and your strong enough to get thru it… Add-on: Milton is slower, the GFS has it running over AMI/Tampa Bay/Pinellas for 2 days now. The EURO on Monday am has it hitting Bradenton. I would not be that surprised if it went south. But models are trending North, not good. Milton is small but powerful with a nasty little eye. It is expected to grow on approach, you’ve got about 48-60hrs to get ready, you can do this.

Sunday 9am Weather Blog: I flew up to NY on Friday from PR… I’m super close to Lake Ontario and it’s chilly. I’ve been staying at my sister in laws house and just got wi-fi. I’m up here for my oldest daughter’s wedding this Saturday and feeling sick about the WFL weather forecast… Not looking good at all. There is supposed to be some WSW swell coming up Tuesday in front of Milton with offshore winds, could be fun before dark on Tuesday if anyone care’s or has time or the beaches are even open. Trying to find a silver lining this Sunday am 72hrs ahead of landfall. All I could find is an uncertain intensity forecast that has Milton getting sheared right before landfall. Cat 2 would be way better than Cat 4 and easier to recover from. The gnarliest surge will be with the eyewall and south of the eye. If Milton was to go farther south, TB may be spared the worst surge… Blame this all on the pattern. The Bermuda high is way out near Europe leaving the NW Caribbean as a hatching ground for tropical cyclones which October fronts pick up like a hockey puck and sweep them side-ways. After 103 years WFL is catching the brunt of this hurricane season when I was sure it would have been the Caribbean. This from the Miami Herald “Tampa Bay’s last direct hit was in October 1921. Decades before hurricanes had names, one beelined for Tarpon Springs, where it made landfall as a Category 3 storm. It damaged buildings from Pass-A-Grille to Ybor and drove 10 feet of surge into the bay”. I was thinking a cold front is coming behind Milton and with late week highs in the low 80’s behind the storm summer would end but now the GFS is showing another Nica born storm in 180hrs so the nightmare may continue. I hope when the pattern changes that WFL can clean up and go another 103 years without this stupid pattern happening. Hang in there guys. Not a bad idea to get out of dodge and if you stay just be ready for no electricity and a big mess. Hang in there… Im praying for you guys, so sorry… Notes: The EC may get it too. The GFS shows the storm not losing very much strength as it cuts across the peninsula it maintains hurricane status into the ATL. Right now no one can say exactly which beach town along WFL is going to catch the eye…

Monday 5am WFL Here comes October: (Sorry for the long winded rant. I’m full of emotion this am after not sleeping much last night) Good morning, thanks for checking in. I really hope things are getting better for you. For people who lost their homes it’s like a nightmare that doesn’t end. I remember looking outside my house for the first time after the 30 hour beat down that was the Cat 4/5(it is still debated) buzz-saw Hurricane Maria in 2017 and everything looked like an atomic bomb had gone off. So much structural damage and trash and not a leaf on a tree anywhere. The depression I felt for my planet, my island, my neighborhood. How are my kids going to go to school? How am I gonna live in my house? Then kitchen base cabinets exploding black mushrooms. When will I surf again? Do I even care anymore? When will life ever get back to normal? Will I have a job? Will I have a routine? Those were all of my immediate thoughts coming out of the hurricane. Two weeks later, there’s this huge, very old Canepa tree, 30 feet from my balcony that’s been around for hundreds of years and seen a hundred hurricanes as it looks out over the Caribbean and that tree started to sprout new, bright green leaves and that gave me hope that things will get back to normal in the future… I just feel sick to my stomach, trouble sleeping for my friends in Florida that lost everything… A few questions come to my mind: Why all the gulf hurricanes? My theory is that with a change of patterns- the high-pressure has been farther out than normal leaving the GOMEX not only open for development but making it the perfect place to launch low pressures. Those low pressures just keep piling up near Nicaragua in the Caribbean and they just keep hatching like Idalia, Debbie and Helene. I totally understand not wanting to live in a flood zone anymore! For the Greater Antilles, it looks like we’re gonna make it through September unscathed(I still have my storm shutters up from Ernesto and I’m not taking them down till November at least). I was 100% sure that we were going to get blasted after the doom and gloom forecast for the 2024 peak season and somehow after Grenada got obliterated by Beryl and Ernesto brushed us we have made it through unscathed so far. With cold fronts scheduled to drop into the Atlantic now that’s going to change the timing and the pattern of the storms coming off Africa. Not that we’re safe here, not that it’s over, but we made it through peak season without being destroyed and I’m grateful for that. This is the new era of climate change. If I had to describe this weeks forecast with one word the word would be muddy. It’s more muddy today than it was last week now with both models and you could just about throw the European in the garbage because it has been out to pasture. Am I wrong? If I’m wrong tell me in the comments but the EURO just doesn’t even factor anymore. The GFS was absolutely drop dead, horrifyingly accurate for Helene. The GFS was amazing for Helene, nailing it seven days out; Intensity, track, everything… Does the GFS have a crystal ball? How does it do that? There wasn’t even a cloud in the Caribbean and the GFS is saying here comes this gnarly hurricane that’s going to hit the Panhandle and go all the way up into the Appalachians, causing catastrophic flooding. So all hail the GFS… Back to the system it looks to be split with a piece coming up into the gulf and another piece in the Bay of Campeche and there’s absolutely no resolution this morning, but I will try and update the details below based on the wave models so check that out and thanks guys for checking in. Thoughts and prayers are with you guys for everybody who lost homes and possessions. I’m really sorry and props to The Compound. They are hosting a free dinner tonight for people who suffered Helene… Check them out today. Go over there for dinner. Get some love, it will help.

Details by Diaco updated 9/30
Monday 9/30 1ft west waves.
Tuesday 10/1 calm.
Wednesday 10/2 calm with solid offshore flow, east trades at 10-15, a little more comfortable out.
Thursday 10/3 Solid easterly trades and flat.
Friday 10/4 Next waves look to possibly be Tuesday 10/8.
Saturday 10/5