Hurricane Debby Wave Forecast Blog for WFL, Manatee, Bradenton, Venice, Sarasota and St Petersburg.

Hurricane Debbie grabs from Pinellas Cnty, Saint Petersburg Surf by Mo Lelii!!


N Venice Jetty has good surf right now.

Sunday 9am swells are arriving in St Pete but a squall is passing with heavy storms moving in.

Manatee Cnty 8am straight offshore, waist to chest. Even behind the squalls the wind went back offshore in Venice with the Sharkys cam showing clean surf at 8am, chest high sets. Hopefully the clean surf lasts a few more hours. It is getting bigger.

Sunday August 4, 2024 WFL Debbie Waves 8am: Waves look fun, seems to be getting bigger, still offshore in many spots, looks waist high range and clean outside of squalls. Not sure how long clean conditions will last, until the squalls hit… Details way below updated.




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Saturday 8/3 7am TD 4 WFL Wave Watch: GM… TD 4 looks like poop this am below Cuba. But everyone says it’s going to blow up any second now, from today to tomorrow PM and finally get it’s act together. Point of Reason: If it’s so far below Cuba and hauling to the WNW and has not made a right turn yet, how is it not going to go even more offshore? Expect the NHC track to continue to shift left a bit more, as it has every advisory. Waves: Its already blowing SE in the Keys. Best south facer has a tiny less than 1ft south line already, sign of things to some. Check it at like 6pm tonight to see if it gets knee plus before dark at best south facer. Then tomorrow, there should be waves at dawn with gusty south winds. Winds will clock SSW during the day if the latest NHC track verifies. If my guess is right and Deb passes even farther out in the gulf you may get an hour or two more of favorable winds before it all goes to pot with strong SSW winds after Deb passes your latitude. The goal is to catch a fun wave Sunday before it blows out- 50/50 there could be a clean wave early Sunday before the wind gets crazy. Check it early… Expect a lot of wind and rain from this system, a bit of flood tide, storm surge possible also, be safe… West winds for days behind Deb… For the North Pinellas crew: Keep an eye on those N facing beaches N of IRB on Sunday, maybe the SSW winds stay a little more side off and it will be cleaner up there if the swell is big enough Sunday.
Big News: My good buddy Mo has been working on a film about surfing and kiteboarding in St Pete! Here is the link to all the info about the premiere party September 5th! Home Town Hype

St Pete Surfing never looked so good! Mo’s in da comp!!


Friday 97L WFL Wave WX 8am: Good morning, 97L is looking more menacing this morning on the satellite starting to spin over eastern Cuba and heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Now the big question becomes will it make an entrance to Florida south of Tampa Bay or north of Tampa Bay? Or right on top of TB? The European model says north of Tampa Bay and the American model says south of Tampa Bay. It’s a big deal because the longer it stays over water the stronger it gets and a storm going into the Big Bend could cause flooding in the usual areas around Tampa Bay. I always said the storm was going Gulf-side based on climatology and if we stick with that reasoning, we’d have to go with the European that’s going to keep it offshore and very close to the Big Bend in the final solution. Yesterday there was talk that it could stall in the Gulf for an extended period of time. Once again, based on climatology, that’s not realistic. It might slow down, but I don’t think it’s gonna stall.. And to give it a hard curve, south of Tampa Bay, that’s not realistic either, IMO… As far as waves go there’s definitely gonna be waves. Even if it hugs the coast, once it crosses the state you’ll get that onshore west flow that will make the surf come up behind it. But if the European model solution materializes, and it stays a little farther offshore, then there’s a better chance for waves on Sunday and jetty spots could be clean for at least part of the morning possibly… I still think waist high range is realistic. I hope you find some fun waves and I hope that Tampa Bay does not get flooded. Shouldn’t be too bad. I’ve left the WX takes from the last few days up to show I never thought for a second it was going up the EC of Florida and also so far the GFS has been more accurate than the EURO which is very important to the rest of this nail biter season we are going to have. The details way below look to be on track, thanks for checking in…
Thursday 8am WFL: So in 12hrs now the crack smoking EURO is even west of the GFS. I expect the GFS to go left also. It has the storm too close for comfort and not even a good wave maker if it hugs the WFL coast. Sunday looks to be the day for building south waves. It could be waist high or plus depending on how far offshore she passes. South winds are the call so jettys could be clean. Details below are updated…

Wed 3pm WFL Wave Call:
Sorry for the late report, had to work this am… I think its coming gulf side but I hope that’s a good thing and not a strong storm doing damage to WFL. La ninya is going to nudge it west, it’s barely August, there are no fronts to make it take a hard right up the EC not sure why the EURO insists. Its just CLIMO to go gulf side with no trough lifting it out. I expect the EURO to repent at some point and join the GFS. This thing is an uninvested trough, just now having convection… Down here, it’s breezy and sunny with passing sun showers here in NW PR very close to the moisture envelop running us over. No waves, choppy 2ft wind waves up N. That being said as long as the storm does not hug the Keys you guys would see building south waves Sunday PM, that’s my call. I’ll update my call tomorrow am…

Monday 7/29 7am The Latest Wave: The wave east of Barbados is not even an invest yet and the GFS does not develop it. The Euro does develop it in the Bahamas and sends it up the EC of Florida still. There is still a chance it could go gulf-side. The GFS does show a little wind surge early next week so the WFL wave forecast goes like this: Continued calm this week with a small chance for a small wave next week. Next update: Wednesday.
My 24 Summer Surf: I’m thinking I may go up to the North Coast on Thursday behind the tropical wave when the wind is forecast to go SE(4ft@8), offshore. I have not surfed since I got back from Costa and Costa did not scratch my ‘need to surf’ itch. Watching the Olympics is not helping. Dying to get barrelled about now, checking flights to Managua. I thought last year I had found the perfect uncrowded barrel spot in Costa but it seems to be less consistent and more onshore than I thought. Anybody got Centro/Mex recommendations for head high barrels? Looks like PJ and his crew scored in Nica. How’s you summer going? If you’ve gotten barreled in the last couple weeks your fortunate. My buddy lives in Dorado and surfs the offshore reefs by himself every day, 10 minute paddle, maybe I’ll head over there… Still anxious PR is gonna get hit in the next couple months :0

Details by Diaco updated 8/4 For best south swell spots. St Pete will probably be smaller.

Thursday 8/1 calm.
Friday 8/2 calm.
Saturday 8/3 calm, watching hurricane alley.
Sunday 8/4 building south waves, waist to head high high range at south swell spots, E winds, going off between squalls…
Monday 8/5 SW wind waves, waist to shoulder high and choppy.
Tuesday 8/6 W wind waves knee to thigh, choppy.
Wednesday 8/7 SW wind waves knee to thigh, choppy.
Thursday 8/8 1ft west wind waves.
Friday 8/9 1-2ft west wind waves, choppy.
Saturday 8/10 1ft west wind waves.

16 thoughts on “Hurricane Debby Wave Forecast Blog for WFL, Manatee, Bradenton, Venice, Sarasota and St Petersburg.

  1. CNTSRF

    Michah, last 2 hours before dark Saturday evening at bean point lines came in around 3 ft with a long wait in between.
    Everywhere else I checked was not filtering in but if you were checking that cam that’s pretty close to there then your eyes weren’t deceiving you.

  2. Ericito

    Beryl was kind of inconsistent. I feel like the swell pulsed off and on knee to thigh at variable increments. You had to keep an eye on it and have low expectations. But better to get wet than not at all!

    1. admin Post author

      Thanks for the report Ericito, hope your having a good summer and you get some waves next week!

  3. hd

    24/7 paid parking on side streets on sunset beach…60 dollar tickets…was fun while it lasted…no surf forever tho

    1. admin Post author

      worst thing about surfing the Berg? finding a place to park? wow that sucks! now you have to pay to surf…. make friends with the neighbors?

      1. hd

        haha my coworker suggested the same ^. gotta pay for all these projects somehow…pass the buck…

        1. admin Post author

          i last surfed Sunset like 2 years ago. I used to surf there a lot and I had the parking spots figured out. I parked in the lot at middle jetty and paid the fee, how much is it now?

          1. KB

            It is $5.00 per hour on the street. The lots are $3.75 I believe. I spoke w the city and they are going to an automated software program that allows the meter maids to read the license plate numbers to see if they are exempt w a pass for local residents or if the car has expired. $60 ticket fine is correct. Such a horrible money grab and inconvenience. I was hoping someone would step up and bring some litigation but I guess that’s out…

          2. admin Post author

            thanks KB…

            checking the tropical wave w guarded optimism- don’t be surprised to see the track more west in the GOMEX, with la ninya this is CLIMO, that big high will keep nudging it west, more on it Wednesday.

  4. hd

    it took forever to come up but it did and so did everyone and their brother and sister. party wave drop in free for all and tame with the offshore wind, semi easterly angle, and uber deep flood tide. i picked off a few on the inside, barrels snaps etc etc, then just called it since i have to drive a ways and dont wanna mess w flooding and sharp squalls. (its breaking so freakin far in, basically shorebreak at high tide) . lasted 4 hours (longest in a yr just about since breaking my elbow) . taking tomorrow off and hope to find some less busy more business choppy chunkers…cheers…

  5. RUSS-D

    IRB was pretty fun for a couple of hours and then a big squall line came through and changed it(for the worse). I am glad I decided to go out when I did though. It’s the first surf I have had in quite a while.

  6. hd

    rip the cam. waitin for the sustained wind gusts to drop below 30 knt/the tide to go out. swells dropping now but plenty left and entirely new, completely leveled breaks…happy hunting this week…

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