October 2022 Triple Dip La Niña Take

Sunday WFL Updated Below the La Ninya Take…

Old film shot from Hurricane Gordon, 2000. Winter was pretty flat but hurricane season had a few.
Outside Twin Bradenton.


Saturday 7am WX map check out the 2 very different La Ninya air masses. The Northern Plains are so dry and the Caribbean so wet. Moisture levels down here are 20-30% higher than normal. Back in Texas, that weak low pressure is not getting any upper level kick to sweep into the gulf.

Saturday 8am WX Opinion: Why are there no waves? Good morning, I had this weather take knocking around in my head for a few weeks so here it goes and this is just my opinion based on the science in my brain and things that I’ve read on weather sites but La Niña is what is responsible for the current multi-year stretch of not too much waves. This is a ‘Triple Dip La Niña’ and we are supposed to be getting to the end of it in the next 6 months. Going back- I can remember 1999 and 2000. It was so bad that I tried to quit surfing. It was just hopeless and my wife was pregnant with our first child and I couldn’t get away to do a surf trip or go to the East Coast very much so I was just dying without waves. Now to look back at history the years 1998, 99 and 2000 were all ‘Triple Dip La Niña’ and these last few years have had the same weather patterns. What was cool was the gulf actually did have waves in 2020 when the triple dip started. So you can survive the first couple years a triple dip bc there was still waves in 2020: (more below)

One of the images we will remember the most from 2020 WFL Hurricane Season. Luke Norris pulling in. Photo used with permission #jmax.


Now we’re in the last stretch which forecasters are saying it La Niña could go into February now. What it does for you guys is: It pulls the storm track up so instead of the storm track coming across Texas and into the southeast, going off of Hatteras the storm track usually is at a higher latitude near Michigan/Southern Canada and the northern plains. All summer long there was a high-pressure blocking any weather from the Gulf of Mexico. Then you get 1 horrible hurricane, Ian… Now during this time of year with La Niña what it does is it spreads out the cold fronts out so you can still get a really good cold front but it’ll most likely be flat in between for weeks. What La Niña has done for the Caribbean and this is why I think it’s flexing right now, it’s probably at its strongest point in the three years- it strengthens the high-pressure in the Central Atlantic and moisture piles up in the Caribbean as you can see on the map above. It’s just soup down here. All the weather from the Southeast US has collected and converged with trade flow from the Eastern Atlantic in the Caribbean basin around the bottom of that Bermuda high so whereas much of the US is in drought- the Caribbean is getting flooded. Even my friends in the Virgin Islands who usually don’t get too much rain are getting tons of rain. Puerto Rico has been flooding. The water quality here is as bad as I’ve ever seen it. Looking ahead for WFL I would expect infrequent cold fronts from now until New Year’s with probably one to three events per month, mostly back door fronts. You know- 1 to 2 foot hard angled north and the same thing for the Atlantic it’s not gonna be that stormy although there is one out there now. I do think once we get to January there’s usually a lot of northeast trade swell down here. The good thing is I guess that this pattern is going to eventually go away. If it does go neutral in the spring of 2023 I think the weather will have that Yin and Yang type of pent up action where it’s going to bounce back with lots of storms and lots of cold fronts with it. It will be really active and next hurricane season will probably be worse than this one, why? Because this season was very slow up until Fiona and Ian. That’s just my opinion, my speculation for this winter but in conclusion La Niña has not been good for gulf coast wave events and even Puerto Rico ocean storm surf. What do you think?




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Sunday 7am Updater: Wave models show a 1ft wave for tomorrow so if you wanted to take your grom or LB and try and try and get wet. It shows up late morning mid day from the old Texas low that weakened and moved away. No real waves but a small line is possible mid day and on Monday. Bad news- Behind tomorrows 1ft wave a blocking high sets up to start November and a flat spell looks to be happening.
Friday 6am 10/28 Wave WX Update: Low pressure over Texas will dig and then move north today. High pressure ridges over Florida with East and NE flow. This pattern is making for more calm and quiet conditions. By tomorrow the Texas low is forecast to weaken and pull away from the gulf. No waves are expected. Late Sunday/Monday will have a small knee high longboard wave. Next week looks calm at this point. Check the EC forecast for surf chances. The Caribbean is pretty calm this weekend but supposed to have swell next week. Have a good weekend. I’ll try and update Sunday or Monday am.

info@aurasurf.com


18 thoughts on “October 2022 Triple Dip La Niña Take

  1. admin Post author

    with La Ninya going strong I’m afraid the ‘meh’ forecast will continue, hang in there. EC may get some more waves…

    any florida flood update?

  2. listen2bob

    As for the rivers flooding, There is a lag time in between rainfall events and peak water level/ flows in streams. All the stormwater ponds and wetlands have to fill up completely before they discharge to a small stream which discharges to a larger stream or river. Each step in that process takes a day or so.

  3. MattM

    Rivers crest days after major rain events due to the flow of water. Storm drainage overflows smaller rivers, canals, and lakes, which feed the main rivers. Once the overflowing stops the water wants to return to normal level. The overfilled sources drain back into the main rivers causing them to flood before they can drain back to the ocean.

  4. admin Post author

    thanks guys I’ve been gone from Florida for 12 years, I needed a refresher on how that works. I’m sure it’s gone down by now right? Have my friends in southern SRQ got power back yet?

    I live in the mountains behind the pueblo in Rincon, PR and at 300ft above sea level- it does not flood here but the low lands got flooded bad(we just get a lot of wind and my house has 20 windows :O. Yesterday Biden was here and pledged a ton of money to help. Hopefully it gets where it needs to go. What we need most is a new energy system, the old grid was built on the 60’s and 70’s and has been mostly not updated. I’m going to invest in solar, DIY… I’m over it…

  5. admin Post author

    a good friend explained it this way: “Basically any point on a river is made of up of lots of different inflows from different areas that all arrive at different times…ie: water could arrive at the same time from rain on a road flowing quickly from a long way away as it would from a slow draining grassy field much closer… so when you add up all the different “times of concentration” from the massive rain all over the state it can take days for it to peak”

  6. Bob

    Great work on the surf report you weren’t wrong. there was a pulse that showed up for me from 3pm-dark..so stoked it amazes me how all these years you havent been wrong once.

    But this morning had me confused on your claim about the tides for this next coldfront. You said 20 N winds blowing all night tuesday and waking up to low tide on wednesday. Strong N winds during lowtide keeps pinellas and manatee county pretty flat. But the swell should be arriving tuesday eve during incoming tide and staying mid tide all night(not too low) which is enough to allow the swell to fill in. And then the midtide shoots right back up Wednesday morning to a deep hightide at 7am during the peak of the swell pulsing in.

    Right now the tides align perfectly with the timing of this next swell for wednesday morning all thru the afternoon to be fun and still really fun wednesday night..im even thinking tuesday night could be fun like you said. WE SHALL SEE lets hope so

  7. admin Post author

    hey Bob your right I missed that high tide on Wednesday am, that should help if it’s a solid high tide in the 2ft plus range the 20knt N wind will take a 1ft off it… it will still be a plus tide and that’s a good thing for early Wednesday

    hopefully best spots are waist high and clean Wednesday am. Tuesday looks late but maybe that will change and the front will make it in earlier, still 3 days away

    glad you found a wave last night would love to know which county and how big…

  8. Fuggin

    I saw the little pulse on the cam/buoys but couldn’t make it. Did anyone see the North pulse from the cold front as well? 099 was 3ft@6sec from the North for a while last night

  9. Ericito

    I was dirty and covered in that Florida dirt sand grime and ended up hopping in the water last night in TI for the last 30 minutes of light. It was about shin high and not all shore lb. I caught a few. It felt nice to rinse off and stick my feet into the soft foam of the foamie. Nada this AM. Maaaaaan. This flat spell has me feeling like a different person lol. I’m writing prose to sand key, imagining a 6@ 6 with 25 NW , avoiding surf media, and trying not to look at the 10 day.

  10. david

    The Gulf of Mexico is sooo polluted right now,with run-off, and nastiness leftover from Hurricane Ian,I doubt it will ever recover!!!!! Lots people ending up with infections………I would not risk it…

  11. admin Post author

    it’s pretty polluted here in pr also it’s been raining 2ft of rain in the last three months, about to flood again today. i checked pico an hour ago and the water was half blue half brown.

    take some vitamins if you go out. this cold front will push everything south… unfortunately think a lot of pollutants will end up in Florida Bay

  12. RUSS-D

    What a fun morning out at The Zoo. It was really clean and had some lined-up rights in the waist+ range. Only a handful of people were out enjoying the swell, which made it that much more fun. I got out as the wind started to mess with it.

  13. Ericito

    Surfed most of the day yesterday. One word :RUSTY.

    My arms were wet noodles. Fun waves tho. Just the spb crew and some swell. Sand is different!

  14. hd

    pm zoo was fun enough weds. small waist high wedges , started to get a little funky / heavy north tilt. beautiful afternoon…

  15. DW

    Ditto to RussD’s comment. Last Wed dawn patrol was the peak of the swell and really clean up here till 9:30. Double the size of what I saw on the SPB cam late morning.

  16. hd

    i agree with the sluggish seasons take, makes total sense. i will say though that last years halloween swell and a day last april produced 2 of the best 10 sessions ive had after having lived in the area for 7 years now. no one out at all for the longest time during both. absolutely perfect heaving head high barreling a frames with lines…

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