July Elsa 2021

WFL late Tuesday. Photo: venicejetty.com


Check out Whitney’s Restaurant on Longboat Key.

Need an attorney that understands you? Check in with Scott.


My brother from another mother- Owen Weaver ripping Nokomis yesterday. Photo: venicejetty.com

Thursday WFL 7am Wave WX Report small leftovers this am best suited for a big log. Forecast- Knee high waves all day today, maybe plus peak at best spots on the right time and tide today. Tomorrow even smaller. The weekend looks calm but wave models show a 1ft at 8 second SSW swell for Saturday afternoon that is hardly worth a mention but a grom on a log may be able to find a ride this weekend besides that back to clam. Next week looks pretty calm at this point also. How was Elsa? Write your report in the comments today. This one is going in the books. To me it looked like a pretty good Cayo Hueso when it finally came up late Tuesday with offshores. How did I do? I think I finally got 1 right- 30-50miles offshore, pretty cool. The GFS also beat the EURO, right? Any opposing takes see you in the comments. Have a good day.

WFL late Tuesday. Photo: venicejetty.com



Wed 7am 7/7/21 WFL Elsa Updater:
Onshore winds are forecast today behind Elsa. The wind may drop back even more as Elsa moves away to allow the leftover waves to clean up a little more at some point today. In Venice the wind has already dropped back a bunch. The cleanest surf is most likely on the N side of the jetties and piers where there is a little protection. Surf is in the head high range this am at best spots and dropping to waist high by late today. Tomorrow best spots look to be knee to thigh as the waves fade even more. Friday just a 1ft southy is forecast and calm for the weekend. Thanks for the reports. How was the storm? Any flooding? Hope you find some fun waves.

Tuesday 7/6 WFL Elsa Take: Elsa looks raggedy on the satellite this am, super lopsided with all the convection over Cuba and the Peninsula of Florida and no wrap out into the gulf. GFS v EURO- so far the GFS was way ahead of the EURO in nailing the track thus far. Once the Hurricane Hunter Planes got in the storm and fed back the data, the GFS also predicted the pressure would jump way up to 1009, south of Cuba. The GFS shows a weak storm today. The Euro shows Elsa becoming a hurricane while skirting the coast today. The NHC stays PC and keep a strong TS along the coast with a hurricane watch to be safe. At this point we want the GFS- wont make much of a dif with surf but we don’t want the coastal flooding of a hurricane. Go GFS. Full report on GFS vs EURO coming later this week. Tomorrow looks chunky and onshore behind Elsa esp early. Thursday looks to be small leftovers and the models have backed off the secondary little southy for later Thursday, hope you find some waves.

Hi this is the WFL surf WX take for Elsa. The thoughts here are mine alone. When making decisions on whether to go surf or board up always consult your local WX authorities, these are just my opinions…
Monday WFL Elsa 10am: When will the waves come up? I’ll tell you what happened to me- I got up at 6am expecting surf and it was still flat. The buoy started to ping around 10am I got to the beach at 10:30am and the waves were fun. If I was in your shoes I would get up early tomorrow and check the cams and be ready if it comes in. If it’s a big east blow it may take awhile but if there are SSE winds at 30plus in the Keys early tomorrow(1am) the Cayo Hueso should be on it’s way to south swell spots esp south of TB. I hope you find some fun waves before conditions are likely to deteriorate. Elsa does not look as strong on radar to me as she did when she became the earliest Cape Verde hurricane ever near Barbados but still be prepared. Notice how she’s skirting the coast of Cuba? Looks to me like she does not want to go ashore. The more Longitude she gains the more offshore WFL she will be. But then comes the coastal flooding- so mixed emotions with this one really too close to the coast to feel stoked all the way. Hope for fun surf and not too much destruction, be ready for anything, gonna be a long season. Sorry for the late report- I’m fighting a summer cold but I’ll try and get up early tomorrow to give you an update, have a good day. The GFS shows lots of precip on the way for WFL starting this afternoon so you may be dodging rain storms with this one.
Sunday July 4th, 6am WFL Elsa Update: Elsa has slowed down a lot and that means you will have more time on Tuesday to surf before it gets squally. The waves look hard angled south to begin Tuesday with strong east winds, 1-2ft and building. It could be fun at the best south swell spots at some point. Later Tuesday conditions may deteriorate as Elsa gets closer. Elsa has been a pretty solid blow so far thru the Caribbean. Not like a powerful Cat 2 hurricane or more but a pretty solid tropical storm so those TS impacts are what you can expect Tuesday night into Wednesday, for more on that check your favorite local WX station. Wednesday looks pretty stormy with strong south flow with Elsa close to you and moving N while accelerating. A chance her tail could train over WFL. The high rebuilds more in the ATL and the SE/SSE flow over the southern gulf may keep a ridebale south swell for a couple more days as winds go slack near WFL. Thursday has a small 1 maybe 2ft @ 8seconds south swell showing up and into Friday. So hopefully some chances to get wet this week starting on Tuesday. Have a good Sunday.

Saturday 7/3: Elsa sends small shot of reverse SW swell to NW PR Thanks to Rob at Surfline for tipping me off to the ETA, got a fun surf in, no waves at dawn but it came up mid morning. Looks tiny but it had juice for the size and perfect form. SP wall was crazy fun, super peaky left wedges… Surfed Pools first and then SP Wall, then the wind got on it. The left at Domes was breaking down by the lighthouse but by that time it was SW winds onshore that side and NE winds on the N side, doh! I think if Elsa had kept it together and slowed down it would have been bigger and better. The track forecast over Cuba usually knocks the storms down. Lots of east wind on the N side. We got .15 rain and 20-30knt winds, no damage around here. I think south coast got more rain and def bigger choppier waves… I hope you guys get/got some waves… I’ll update Sunday am.

Pools Rock solo sesh.

Surf!

Lil’ bowls

sp wall not a set wave

surf

Small but fun.


Hi this is the WFL surf WX take for Thursday July 1st. The thoughts here are mine alone. When making decisions on whether to go surf always consult with your own brain first, these are just my opinions…

Thursday Euro v GFS Updater: The EURO continues to be out to lunch on Elsa fading her and sending her as an open wave thru the Central Bahamas. The GFS brings Elsa gulfside early Tuesday in just 5 days. The GFS has adjusted slightly south since yesterday. Better than reforming N which I was afraid of when 97L was an elongated trough. PR can breathe a little easier. Confidence is solid that Elsa will miss us. Everyone in PR is already surfing! Inches and Jobos have 20 people out apiece this am. Where I live the waves are like knee high and very mushy. I have not surfed in a month. Surfline called Elsa ‘Once in 100 years’. Indeed I’ve lived here for 10 years and never had a fully formed storm track thru the Caribbean like this, a few have gone by but they were open circulations at our way point and not wrapped until they got past our longitude. WHY? WHY WHY? 1. Africa is having a very solid monsoon season. So big waves will pour off Africa. 2 Not too much SAL dust this year at all. 3. Water is warming up 82-83 here by me- which I think is a bit cool this time of year, should be 83-84 but makes for cool breezes. 4. No shear from 800mb to 200 mb(that’s a bit above sea surface up to the 40,000ft in that order) it’s all east, no shear!!!! that’s why I’m saying: all the lights are green. What it means for you: Under the current scenario WFL could see building Cayo Hueso next Tuesday as Elsa enters the gulf. That’s how it looks as of now. Have a great day. Add on: Check your hurricane supplies, Elsa has the green light and she will follow the periphery of the Bermuda High which if all goes acc to the forecast scenario puts her close to WFL, hopefully offshore with groomed swell but maybe closer.
So good, the whole thing- sounds like the 70’s but better!

This is the location of my WX station. Link below if y our a WX nerd and you like to check random sites for current conditions as tropical systems pass by.

Finca Weaver WX station located in Rincon, PR
Wednesday Updater 6:22am Wave models continue to show 1ft maybe plus at 8 seconds SSW for tomorrow. It would be worth a check on the cams in the am, local wind looks light ESE. It would be a clean little slide if it shows up at best south swell spots. Tropics (more below): 95L hammering Barbados on the radar this am. 97L looks menacing with spin. The GFS tracks a solid tropical storm/Cat1 below PR and into the DR, booooo. Why do the poor countries always get hit early and late? I should be stoked bc it could send a good SSW swell up the channel to my backyard, we’ll see… I just have that sinking feeling about this hurricane season. This is way too early to be getting Cape Verde’s holding together. People are dying from the heat in British Columbia, all time record, never before recorded. Crazy, the word is ‘unprecedented’. I hope we don’t have a ‘unprecedented’ Atlantic hurricane season but Cape Verde’s at the beginning of July is not CLIMO at all- it’s like hurricane season on crack. Can we believe the GFS? Honestly it’s been my go to model over the years(see Harvey, Irma, Maria 2017) even though the EURO wins about 50% of the time. OK lets do this- EURO vs GFS Wed 6/30: GFS has Cat 1 S of PR, Euro has a weak TD fading out. The timing is Saturday. So by Saturday night we’ll know which model will win and that will start to give us a little more confidence. What about Claudette? EURO had a Texas storm. GFS nailed the LA track and strength. We will see. Tomorrow: If I was on the GC I would get up to pee at 5am, check 42098 and if it looked like a small swell came in- take my log and a fish(wishfrul thinking) and go to maybe my fave S swell spot just for the chance it could be fun. Better yet: at least wait for very first light to check the cams and see if a south line shows up, maybe that’s better… It sucks to get skunked and my track record has not been great forecasting lately IMO, reader beware disclaimed.


Speaking of EURO’s… I have a confession:
I am a closet soccer fan! There I said it, I confessed. Dude, the EURO 2020 has been so good. If your waiting for the NFL and bored to tears by MLB and confused with the NHL- the EURO has been really good. Check out England v Germany yesterday. I thought the Brits were reserved. If your bored with it FFWD to the 75th minute, holy cow. It was like WW II. Anyways my team is Italia. They have a huge game vs Belgium on Friday and Belgium is awesome!! Fuerza Italia…

Aaron Cormican RNF’n it gulf-side. Photo: M Weaver.


Wednesday Add On:
Just for way out there in 168hrs a TS is entering the gulf from the Keys on the GFS. It will undoubtedly change between now and then but something to watch for next week. 97L is a low rider and could be headed for the gulf eventually.

Did I help anyone score any waves in June? Donation link to the left, no worries thanks again.

June had some waves from the trough and from Claudette… If you appreciate the hard work and early reports and you feel like donating it’s much appreciated. Paypal on the right side panel- Venmo is preferred and super easy! My Venmo is: Micah-Weaver-8. Your generosity is awesome!

info@aurasurf.com

49 thoughts on “July Elsa 2021

  1. admin Post author

    Love the old Florida discussion- any other roads to drive? 44 and 192 to old Florida. the 415 from Sanford to Volusia?

    speaking of hunting how about air rifles for invasive species? I had to push the iguanas back off my farm they are a invasive non native plague in PR.

  2. greg

    My son and I went to CR 4 years ago and stayed in Esterillos…man that spot is super fun. We did a little hopping around and went up to Hermosa of course, but we mostly spent our time right there. My boy was 15 at the time and he got into some 2OH that he called the best waves of his life.

  3. admin Post author

    that’s awsome Greg thanks for that! I love that area… It sounds like you may be talking about esterillos centro, that wave is like a big wall. Oeste had this a frame in front of a little school not too far from the mermaid statue out on the ocean- anybody know what Im talking about? Rancho Coral used to be there and that’s where we stayed and we would wake every am to perfect head high barrels

  4. Rob

    Great pic Micah. I wish there was a sequence (we all wanna know if you blasted the lip) 🙂

    1985. For me – I was in 7th grade and got a Morey Boogie Board for Christmas. By Spring, I had my first board – a dope 5’8″ Quiet Flight that I mowed a lot of yards for. I think that I had it on layaway at the old Mad Beach St. Pete Beach location for years.

    Your memory is really good. All of those early years just kind of run together for me (aside from Elena which was also in ’85) The only thing that I really remember was how much of a legit surf scene Upham used to have. I’d get dropped off by my Mom in the parking lot, and paddle out into what at the time seemed like an intimidating line up.

    Long boarders sitting waaaaay outside picking off all the outside sets. Meanwhile, us groms sitting near the seawall trying to pick up any inside nugs that were leftover that the long boarders missed or let go by. I remember it being super crowded.

    Funny thing is, I also remember the scene in the parking lot. People sitting in their hatchbacks between sessions. People skateboarding. Some of them surfed out and covertly drinking a few beers while lying about the barrels they got on the inside.

    I think that the last season where we got waves of it’s former self (with the old set up) was like 2003 or maybe 2004. I miss that place and how it used to break. Later, after I got a “job” and had a lot of responsibilities, it sure was nice to have the ability to do a legitimate dawn patrol, then shower up in the parking lot before heading into the office. Hell – I could even surf on my lunch break if I wanted to.

    So yeah – that picture wasn’t from Upham, but it sure does bring back some memories from that era. I miss those days.

  5. Leonard Skinner

    So I know sometimes people say the models are on something. I think it could be an old dude that used to surf and can’t. He puts the carrot out there to get everyone stoked and then “poof”.

  6. Pat

    Great shot id love to see more redington shots if you got em. Im really curious to see what the old setup used to look like on a day with swell before all the dredging.

  7. admin Post author

    Rob those are awesome memories and I think even though we didn’t know each other at that point our lives paralleled you being a Saint Pete guy and I was up the county in Seminole surfing Redington

    Pat, I will see if I can find some more pictures if not I got a lot of stories haha

    First time I surfed Upham -was probably late 80s and you’re right it was a total scene and the waves were great sunset and upham

    Did I hype something guys? Sorry if I did… I figure I just try and translate what the models and the Marine Forecast are calling for… I guess I did think there would be waves the second week in June so that’s a quick reminder going into hurricane season don’t bite the carrot until it’s in your mouth

  8. Leonard Skinner

    Oh no admin, I was talking about maybe there is a dude that puts the maps out to get us stoked and then “Poof”. Your site is great!

  9. Jimmy

    Funny seeing that picture on the Island Shop stairs. That was my local shop growing up as I lived on the other side of Walsingham bridge. Would ride my bike up there and just hang at the shop all the time. Bruce and Brad were always super cool to us kids. What ever happened to Bruce? Didn’t he move to CO and open up an ice cream shop or something JH V? Miss that guy. He was big influence on us groms back in the day.

  10. admin Post author

    Bruce did move to CO. I think he’s on FB… super cool guy and a great influence and support to us growing up.

  11. admin Post author

    thanks guys I was wondering if anyone surfed. glad you got some… check the red tide map on FWC some beaches have it and others don’t

  12. N8

    Tuesday afternoon mush at the beach nourishment spot was fun – Some waist high sets with only a few out. Praying for more….

  13. admin Post author

    You’ll get more Im sure… thanks for the reports guys keep bringin em’

    always worth a check in the am to see if any south comes up… not sure how the wind down there was blowin today

  14. Ericito

    dang mw, sending love and blessings to the fam! get well soon!

    today was the 5th day in a row of waves, caught it every morning locally. hoping the trend continues for fathers day/ inter surfing day (both on the same day AND possibility for maybe a nug or 2???)

  15. M-dub

    Hi guys m-dub here coming to you from the Mayaguez Medical Center… kids getting better but we’ll still be here a couple days

    Looked like the blob three missed the channel and didn’t hit it right… sorry guys you should still get some waves over the weekend when the wind out there finally goes south. Don’t give up yet… Not sure of the eta but just keep an eye on it. AMI and a couple other spots probably have a small rideable wave but it’s very small today Friday.

  16. baytopper

    I managed to get three days of surf in. Would have gotten more if I wasn’t so fried from the sun. Those afternoon sessions are brutal. They were pretty mushy sessions but on the plus side that little south swell hung around for a while. Goal is always to try and surf every named storm in the gulf so I have a perfect score going so far!

  17. Fuggin

    I’ve been scoring pretty hard this last week. I’ve been visiting my sister on Camp Pendleton Marine base which is nestled between Oceanside CA in the south and exclusive parking access to Lowers/Church in the north. They’re calling it 2-4ft out there but the 3ft@19 southern hemi swell jacks up well overhead into some of the best waves I’ve ever surfed. Not even registering on Gulf or EC scale, we don’t get waves like this period. Not even on the biggest of hurricane. Today they’re calling it 5-6ft and it might as well have been Teahupo’o for me. So gnar, got a few of the biggest and steepest sections of my life but also almost died a couple times 😳. Driving to the Grand Canyon today, kind of sad to leave but if I stay any longer I may never come home 🤙

  18. Skrims

    Was out Tarpon fishing off a local S Pinellas Beach on Sunday and saw a bunch of longboards catching glassy little waves. Seemed like decent long period sets rolling in from the boats view. My 5 y/o son just got over his fear of swimming and is killing it in the pool this summer. Thought this would be the perfect day to finally get him on a surfboard and belly ride some waves.. We caught the same beach that evening, breaking perfect knee/thigh glassy little waves. We caught a ton of “first waves” together and he didn’t want to leave even though the sun was going down. I will always remember the “Claudette” swell! Wasn’t much, but created a lifelong memory for my family!

  19. Ericito

    11 days in a row! Weeeeew! Finished off with thr best waves of the whole streak this morning! Idk how thats possible but it was borderline epic this morning! Pics incoming!

  20. Rob

    Whaaaaat? Check the GFS run Sunday – Thursday of next week. I didn’t see the EURO biting on that. “That” being a full on tropical system moving through the channel and giving us waves in the sweet spot.

    It’s got to be on the pipe again – right?

  21. Rob

    Yeah … and the EURO still not biting at all …

    It’d be interesting to see what data is having them both doing what they are doing (and why) … that is a huge discrepancy / difference between the two. Even though we are a week out from any weather associated with it.

  22. Ericito

    Had a surf with the grom today! We rode seperate boards! So stoked! On another note, mild cold front this weekend?

  23. Pat

    If this new gfs track to the left stays the same then someone in WFL is getting hit. Id rather see this thing weaken and go up into the bahamas. If it stays out in the gulf, who knows if elsa has a mind of its own and decides to upper cut one of us the last second.

  24. Pat

    Track just changed for the best in our favor. Could be the once in a lifetime swell. Would you fly back over here to catch it if its good?

  25. admin Post author

    Pat your right the 00z run put Elsa farther offshore but now the latest 06z moves her back closer. Either way your likely to get tropical storm conditions locally as she goes by. I can’t get back right now too much going on in my own family. hopefully later in the month or August. Ideally if I could dial it up my fave is the channel swell like Dean or Wilma- they would make me hustle a bit more 🙂

  26. hd

    biggest waves ive surfed, sadly, in 3 months this morning. really criss crossed but some fun 2 turn waist stomach wind peaks

  27. Ericito

    I agree on biggest waves in a while this morning. Nice warmup for more hopefully. Had a super stellar session this morning, chest high sets every once in a while and after the storms it would glass off for a bit!!! Surfed 4 hours!

  28. hd

    to sum up the contemporary wfl surf scene: cam right now during barely rideable 6 inch “tropical swell” — dozens of people out. juxtaposed with last saturday morning —biggest waves in 3 months, hardly announced. 2 maybe 3 people out.

  29. admin Post author

    hd i think it’s that way everywhere- glad you scored last Saturday. I did see like 3 out of 7 cams with fun surf this afternoon- I would have been out in the water for sure- I guess that makes me a kook acc some of the comments Ive had to delete today, the grumpies are out 🙁

    who found some fun surf before the storm? I saw an outside shoal breaking…. need some positive reports or was it all bad?

  30. JDH

    I think its always silly when people get upset when swell doesn’t arrive in the Gulf during a storm and then doesn’t according to their timing, or roll up to the parking lot breaks and see it flooded with people in the water.
    Meanwhile I walk around the bend around lido point and surf bombing little pass into longboat with reeling lefts and not anyone even considering the walk and far paddle out, especially as the sun is going down.
    I can say it on every fl surf forum year after year and I’ll still be out there by myself catching the best waves around.
    Tomorrow morning I have my eyes on surfing out in front of the Bubba Gump Shrimp Co inside of a pass if you get the gist of where im talking about.
    It works really good on those blown out southwest onshore days at times. If not, there’s another spot south of the skyway that offers protection with a wrap around but nobody seems to check it year after year. People want everything easy and handed to them and its ok with me. I prefer to surf alone anyhow.

  31. Leonard Skinner

    I can’t believe how GFS nailed the path. Seemed like it forecasted it 2-3 weeks ago.
    Glad Elsa was kinda weak. I could not fathom if this was a Katrina caliber storm.

  32. hd

    thank lerd for non cyclonic storm originating close to shore with paralleling coast track and lower high tide. same strength as eta but nowhere near the damage.

  33. Ericito

    Worst red tide ive ever been in today. Where did that come from. Usually doesnt even bug me, but today was like siracha water mixed fish paste.

  34. CB

    My late Tuesday before the storm went like this…..
    Worked longer than I should storm prepping job site
    Got home depressed thinking I missed my window
    Looked at cams and yelled at my son to grab gear(kissed wife goodbye of coarse)
    Hauled a-s pulled in our ami spot sprinted to water waves delicious got home at dark
    Cracked a giant cold one! NIGHT NIGHT

    GOOD FORECAST. GOOD WAVES

  35. Nelson

    Great call on the surf Micah. I didn’t surf due to work and family obligations but this too shall pass and I’ll get back out there soon or maybe not and I’ll pick up knitting instead.

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