April Cold Front

Thursday 6:00am WFL Surf WX 3/31/21

Thursday am WX map and the strong front is N of the West Tampa Buoy early.

Thursday 5pm winds…

Thursday Surf WX 6:00am 4/1/21 thanks to everyone who donated! I’ll send you a personal thank you note soon… Remember Speedy Gonzales had a cousin named Slow Poke Rodriguez (he live in PR LOL) This fronr is Slow Poke Rodriguez. 036 is like slack winds and 1ft seas at 6am 100 miles out- then in Mobile Bay Alabama the winds are 360 in a gale! Crazy front reminds me of that March front in 2009 and those poor guys out amberjack fishing… The gulf goes from calm/flat to 35knts and 8-10ft seas in the span of 45 minutes… Any ways this front is taking forever. Ill still think after 2pm and last light is 8:15pm so that’s your window today, try and surf for sure… Back at lunch with an updater… I’m almost done with the project and I get to surf fro a couple hrs this am!!! Finally some waves again down here… out there!

Tonight at dark…

Friday 6am WFL 4/9/21: Missing Polar NCEP NOAA Wavewatch III Gulf Coast Gulf of Mexico wave models:
Every day for the last week I’ve been analyzing this system and it’s been locked in for days, not much to add or change, little tweaks… I notice between the GFS near term and the NWS Marine forecast a slight notch up that will eventually result in some fun south swell Sunday PM and Monday(over the southern gulf will it blow south at 20, 25 or 30 tomorrow?). Saturday waist high and windy. But what about today? Seas are forecast to bump up and if you need a Friday slide to wash off the week go right before dark to your best south swell spot with a big log and there should be something. Honesty I’m struggling w/o my Polar NCEP WWIII. It used to be so easy. I’m using a lot of the tools Surfline has and my problem is SL’s model do not go to Honduras like Polar did and the new GFS wave model is way too pulled back, like trying to do the forecast with a wide angled lens. I want to see what’s going on all the way down in the Yucatan Channel. How strong are the winds 20? or 30? how long is the period? 8? or 9? makes all the difference… Polar used to give you all that in minute detail on the same frame and now I have to go searching. I want Texas, LA, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Belize, all the places WFL can get waves from in 1 shot, I need to see it all, like Polar…. I’ve been googling GOMEX models and nothing comes close to Polar, if you know one clue me in… It’s like 1985 again and lets just look at a static WX map and the marine forecast. Lets watch Dick Fletcher on the news at 6pm and we’ll know as much as we do now in 2021. Well that’s my rant… mourning the loss of Polar NCEP WWiii the model I used since I started auarsurf.com in 1998.

RIP dude.

Viola! We waited a long time for this…. Sorry to be a Debby Downer but I’m not down with it too much… Besides this period graphic I couldn’t find anything more useful than what we are already using.

Thursday WFL 4/8/21 8am: This one is starting to look fun. Hope you get some good waves and no red tide. Don’t hype the forecast, it is the gulf disclaimer… but if 3ft at 9 seconds came up late Sunday into Monday and then the wind switched NE overnight, Monday am could have fun SSW swell and NE winds for a bit. Kind of a rare situation, anyways the forecast has not changed and looks to stick. South winds all weekend and then Sunday night a wind switch is forecast. For tomorrow, first south lines are close to shore and short period, Friday PM does not look that good and it may not even get rideable but Saturday will have waves for sure… Yucatan/southern gulf juice is late Sunday into Monday. That’s how it looks to me, I hope you score. NW PR Forecast update below…
2nd Week in April 2021 SOUTHY- Synopsis: A low pressure trough is forecast to sink in over the Northern gulf this weekend. This causes the gradient to tighten a little more and now the entire GOMEX looks to be swept by south winds all weekend. Friday PM looks knee to thigh at best south facers. Saturday Knee high building to waist high at south swell spots with gusty south winds. Sunday starts knee to thigh plus but could build to waist high swell as a stronger pulse fills in from offshore, 3ft at 8 seconds SSW for Sunday PM, target that. That south swell continues into Monday. With a stationary trough/front in the area the winds could blow hard south or they may die at some point Sunday or Monday. So the forecast looks better today. Just thinking out loud here but… if the flow is from the south, doesn’t that keep cleaner water south of the Bay? Seems like your normal level of pollution we’ve always had to deal with unless that thing breaks and then all bets are off. Any red tide right now? I hope not… I hope you get to enjoy the south swell this weekend. The details are fuzzy but the odds at weekend surf are on the way up, more tomorrow.

March was a bit difficult with not much WX and small chances… If you appreciate the hard work and early reports and you feel like donating it’s much appreciated. Paypal on the right side panel- Venmo is preferred and super easy! My Venmo is: Micah-Weaver-8. Your generosity is awesome!

WFL, 6ft at 10 seconds west. Perfect size and period- and if there is offshore or no wind can make for great surfing conditions.

What does the period mean?(basic layman explanation for surfers in WFL) It’s the space between the waves and has to do directly with the power of the surf
Wind waves 4 seconds or less: Crap
Wind waves 5-7seconds rideable but not always much power, at 7seconds it can start to get fun on the gulf, example- when 036 is 7ft at 7seconds thats a good cold front swell and usually waist to chest high.
8 seconds is when it start to turn to real waves.
9-10seconds and up is ground swell for the gulf and can happen from strong fronts with low pressure, a good Yucatan fetch and/or hurricanes.
11 seconds for the gulf is more rare and starts to really thump hard.
13 seconds usually from a distant texas hurricane or Cat 4 or 5 in the middle gulf like Ivan(2004 WAS 13 SECONDS).
Above 13 seconds super rare on the gulf but 1 hurricane last season had 16 second swell in the gulf.

Grower. 2ft at 20 seconds last year. The only time I have surfed a 20 second groundswell in the Atlantic.

For PR 8 seconds is the starting point 7 and below is super weak garbage here. 8-9 is fun at Pools and Sandy Beach bc it does not close out typical period is like 10-11 from EC cold fronts. 12-13 seconds is when it starts to barrel here. 14 and above it really bowls and bends hard as it feels the reef offshore 18-20 seconds is super rare here but great Indo style surf from distant powerful ocean storms.


If you care about Puerto Rico follow this girl Bianca. She’s really trying hard to help here…

65 thoughts on “April Cold Front

  1. D-Bot

    Glad to see you picked up Whitney’s as a sponsor. This place has great food and an amazing design aesthetic.

  2. admin Post author

    C Mon guys you just won the freaking super bowl -what is with the negativity? hd you were supposed to send us pics of you getting barreled but you just come in with some negative crack… Snipe

    How quick you forget…

    Comments will be disabled if you can’t stay positive and give us a take or report that helps us out

  3. Fuggin

    The models are definitely having a little trouble figuring out what next week will look like for us wave wise but it does look to be ridable(subjective to equipment and/or stoke level lol) at times as the West Gulf spits out a few weak lows and then maybe a solid front later in the week. We shall see, I feel a spring like la nina pattern taking hold which could go either way for us. Last Spring was one of the most consistent in recent memory.

    I’m happy for your Bucs! They blew the last half of the season out like an iron lion in Zion and hit stride in the playoffs. KC really never stood a chance! As a Jags fan it was a little hard to watch Fournette play so well still wearing Fred Taylor’s #28 but props to him, he got his SB ring and earned it. I think next year will be good for the Bucs as well. And that Lombardi toss to Brate! 😂

  4. hd

    i had a really good session a few weeks back, that was fun. the big day monday before last was too. the good sized december day (not xmas swell) was fun. otherwise, i just havent been that satisfied with this winter, as predicted. been focusing on other outlets as a result.

  5. lennard skinner

    Every goober and their weekend warrior tribe show up when the cane swell is here.

    I’ve been surfing that Manatee secret spot since ’84

    What can you if there is drift ?
    Build more groins,jetties?? Too many people. These people are multiplying and so on…

    I’m trying to relocate to the back woods this year. Not telling where or they might follow and build condos.

  6. hd

    ive said it before, dont take my complaints as overly negative. i have fun no matter the conditions and am always positive in the lineup unless disrespected. but i also am a realist and like to vent/overanalyze. your takes are the most detailed and accurate and i appreciate the forum.

  7. Nelson

    The past 12 months have brought out the best and worst in people. Thanks Micah for the hard work which allows me to surf in between all of life’s responsibilities.

    Yemen, Somalia and Omen, just to list a few places with no crowds, constant offshore winds and numerous headhigh days.

  8. baytopper

    On a positive note, there’s a shin high short period line out there this morning. May bump a bit as the tide rolls in. I’m getting wet today.

  9. baytopper

    I just got out . There were some thigh plus sets wrapping in every once in a while. That swell is at a hard angle right now so having a hard time getting in, but there was definitely some longer period stuff out there.

  10. lennard skinner

    west coast secret spot. bigger than expected for DP today.
    wind started going about ten but not before I got my fill.
    Keep the spots obscure…

  11. Ericito

    Had a super awesome day yesterday. Out back solo all day! Wedging little barrels breaking across the whole dang thing! Not really working anywhere i looked this morning! Glad I surfed it up yesterday!

  12. Fuggin

    Last night before dark was pretty chunky and the wind not too bad out of the south chopping up the waist high sets. Back on the beach this am and it looks like knee-thigh lb waves and I’m out there. Stoked on the forecast 🤙

  13. Fuggin

    As advertised, Micah you nailed it! Winds are clocking favorable for my spot since 4pm with waist-chest sets pushing through the shoal and dumping on the inside. Surfed by myself again. In fact, this whole winter I’ve been pretty lonely out here only seeing 2 different faces since December. Seek and ye shall find 🤙

  14. hd

    one of the better days this winter. actual multi turn lines with power, occasional tube, and not insane current or chop.

  15. greg

    Well Fuggin…Glad you found a spot without a crowd. I went to the zoo and every animal on the planet was out of the cage. Got ran over twice and smacked by a board a guy ditched once. I usually stay away from a crowd but was pressed for time. Went strait from work for the last hours before dark so no time to search. All in all…still pretty fun.

  16. hd

    ah west florida, the only spot in the world where offshores are a bad thing. still nice to get a cool down after last night—which pumped for a minute.

  17. hd

    it just held the tide up/kinda stayed side to onshore most of the time so it didnt really break (kinda just shelved up then dumped into shallow water despite the swell being there). im sure other spots were working. there were a few fun ones tho. but yesterday pm right as the tide started dropping and the nw swell filled in there were some great lines then it
    got too choppy for my liking.

  18. Nelson

    Yesterday morning I surfed by myself at a spot that was dredged about 2-3 months ago maybe a bit longer. It was deceiving, to the right was knee high and shallow closeouts, then I walked south a couple hundred yards to find a slight bend in the bar that was working. What should have been a deep hole was breaking because of the low tide. Waist sometimes bigger fast almond shaped barrels. Sets we’re about every ten minutes or so, with 5-6 waves in them. Had it been a foot bigger it would have been all time.

    It was a good morning for me.

  19. admin Post author

    sounds rad, thanks for the reports guys!! I watched the cams for a long time and had flashbacks to some great sessions at my fave spot back in the day- with offshores a lot more options open up

  20. hd

    my argument is climate change causes an increase in seasonality—meaning the difference between seasons is more abrupt with less time in between. spring has sprung. was a good run.

  21. Rob

    In my opinion, regardless of an unavoidable flat spell (it was bound to happen eventually) there’s no way we stay flat for long. Historically speaking – we have always had really good March swells. I can’t remember a March where we didn’t get at least a few bangers (regardless of El Nino or La Nina) … April yields a few as well.

    The transition month has always been May – where the best we can usually hope for is a little gradient that sets up with a low to our North … but not enough gas in it’s tank to push through the entire way.

    In short, based on history – we’ll get some good Spring waves at some point.

  22. Ericito

    This year has been the most consistent! At least since I can remember starting in 2005. I remember in 2005 seeing waves that blew my mind and I was like “what? Theres really waves this good? I gotta start surfing the gulf more” regardless I have surfed more the past 12 months than any other year! Its been good!

  23. D-Bot

    What Happened? I got a new board. Sorry y’all…

    This by far has been the most consistent year I can remember. (2004 was a banger) Waves almost every week in some form or another.

    Robbed is 100% correct, March always sends some fun waves. Most likely the best waves will be on March 27th. I can guarantee it.
    Take this next 10 days off, clean your wax, air out your funkdified wetsuits, take your dog for lots of walks, cook your girl dinner, and finish that neglected list of chores.

  24. Fuggin

    2020 Definitely the most consistent in my recent memory as well, especially when you add in the decent winter last year with spring producing right into that insane tropical season giving me 04-05 flashbacks and this winter was good for me as well. Timing was the key for me…coupled with staying at home/only able to work weekends since March 2020 and Micah’s excellent forcasting skills, I only missed out on a few swell events the whole year. I almost felt like I lived on the east coast again even getting a couple 7day+ streeaks of water time. But even they have flat spells. I agree with Rob, spring will toss at least a few more our way until we start looking towards the tropics. I also feel like the climate lately has been giving us(the world) more weather in the spring and fall transitional seasons as the ice melts and energy gets displaced.

  25. greg

    My call for the weekend is thigh to waist on Sunday morning with a fast fade away. Not super confident but hopeful we get at least that much…

  26. Jack

    I don’t think there will be waves in the weekend. The winds forecast 10-20 mph and stormy saturday and stronger winds sunday and both are in the direction of NNE. Even if there is a swell, it will be REALLY tiny because those winds will blow it down. Best bet would be tomorrow after to evening then early thursday morning.

  27. Fuggin

    The models are having a little trouble figuring out what will happen as am I. I think there’s a good chance of a small wave tomorrow at some point if that LA low cranks up some this afternoon and this evening especially south of the bay. Right now not looking too impressive but things can change. This weekend maybe a weaker similar scenario repeated but it looks really backdoor. Sometimes those fronts drag slowly and send us some small LB nugs. Maybe these systems can clear the way for some more favorable surf wx mid March…fingers crossed.

  28. Ericito

    Found some fun wedges today a little after lunch. Thigh high and thumping for how small it was! Lefts and rights! Can’t complain at all! Hope its still south south west in the morning before it switches

  29. Fuggin

    Got a solid 1hr session in from 330-430 and it was pretty lined up despite the wind with solid sets pushing through at high tide. I’m sure it’ll be good until dark and maybe some clean lb sliders in the am. Get it if you can! 🤙

  30. admin Post author

    looked super fun on the cams wedgy peaks at 8 seconds, glad you got some… anyone else?

  31. Ericito

    Surfed south Snst beach. Gay beach was cracking! Some,chest + sets coming through around 12-1. Super rippable and got a couple 3 to the beach!!!

  32. Fuggin

    Those pics look fun! I have to get my butt down to PR sometime soon! I guess I’ll be that guy… I found some small waves yesterday(Sunday) afternoon. The buoys and cams made me check it after work and I found an obscure spot nobody surfs at that was holding a lil knee-thigh peak from the 4ft@5NNW. I think the only thing making it ridable was the stiff NE wind. Speaking of stiff NE wind…anyone ever surf in the bay? To me every wave on the Gulf is a novelty wave so anything is on the table lol. The bay gets chunky, sometimes shortboardable…Is that even a word?🤔

  33. Pat

    I hope this next coldfront forecasted on March 19, 2021 rolls in and unloads its blazing guts out on us with the biggest surf we’ve seen all winter. I hope it happens

  34. greg

    Hate to read you have back trouble. My back has never been an issue and in fact I have been blessed to have lived virtually injury free my whole life (55 years old now). That changed this past Tuesday. Got smoked by a drugged up kid while waiting to turn left and my low back has hurt since. Looks like my car will be totaled too. Hit me doing 55 and never touched the brakes. The worst part? Watching the cams of good surf I am missing.

  35. admin Post author

    Greg thanks for checking in, so sorry that happened to you, tough to find a silver lining and stay positive but we are glad you are safe and ok besides the back… MLK and 22nd Ave people die from that- check the crosses on the side by 7 11… keep us posted on your progress, we can make this the surfer pain thread 🙂 I have turf toe also from hammering the pad too hard I need to talk to TC about that one, he would surf with his foot taped up always. Hope you guys stay healthy so we can do what we love

    I’m a crip I can barely stand up, I walk like a gorilla and we have 13 second swell coming in just 48hrs, trying not to think about it, thanks again- hope you feel better!

    I m going to go delete some Timmy comments that kid ruined my week hahaha JK and it will give us more time to talk about injuries and getting healthy

  36. Fuggin

    I’m excited for the upcoming action, probably not many more, if any fronts left behind this one but it looks solid for late season. I hope you guys can heal up quickly. I shattered my shoulder and broke my humorous in a motorcycle wreck in 2007. It was pretty gnarly and I was out of action for a little over a year. After surgery & some titanium reinforcement the Dr said it wasn’t likely I would be surfing again. Shattered mentally and physically, I refused to refill my pain Rx and tried to find the stoke that got me surfing when I was a grom. By winter 2008 I was back on my fatty fish and never looked back. Take care of your body young rippers, you only get one (until Elon Musk gets us some Darth Vader/Luke Skywalker arm and legs). Greg, you’ll get back out there. Hopefully you’re receiving some type of treatment and if you get some rehab and/or physical therapy pay attention to what they’re doing as insurance only pays for so much and eventually you’ll have to do the exercises and stretching on your own. Best wishes 🤙

  37. admin Post author

    wow that buoy page is sick! Thanks Matt! The site is super slow for me… you guys?

  38. hd

    idk how accurate that page is tbh ^ says the height is 1.7 right now and cam/wave heights map says otherwise.

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