April Cold Front

Thursday 6:00am WFL Surf WX 3/31/21

Thursday am WX map and the strong front is N of the West Tampa Buoy early.



Thursday 5pm winds…


Thursday Surf WX 6:00am 4/1/21 thanks to everyone who donated! I’ll send you a personal thank you note soon… Remember Speedy Gonzales had a cousin named Slow Poke Rodriguez (he live in PR LOL) This fronr is Slow Poke Rodriguez. 036 is like slack winds and 1ft seas at 6am 100 miles out- then in Mobile Bay Alabama the winds are 360 in a gale! Crazy front reminds me of that March front in 2009 and those poor guys out amberjack fishing… The gulf goes from calm/flat to 35knts and 8-10ft seas in the span of 45 minutes… Any ways this front is taking forever. Ill still think after 2pm and last light is 8:15pm so that’s your window today, try and surf for sure… Back at lunch with an updater… I’m almost done with the project and I get to surf fro a couple hrs this am!!! Finally some waves again down here… out there!

Tonight at dark…


Friday 6am WFL 4/9/21: Missing Polar NCEP NOAA Wavewatch III Gulf Coast Gulf of Mexico wave models:
Every day for the last week I’ve been analyzing this system and it’s been locked in for days, not much to add or change, little tweaks… I notice between the GFS near term and the NWS Marine forecast a slight notch up that will eventually result in some fun south swell Sunday PM and Monday(over the southern gulf will it blow south at 20, 25 or 30 tomorrow?). Saturday waist high and windy. But what about today? Seas are forecast to bump up and if you need a Friday slide to wash off the week go right before dark to your best south swell spot with a big log and there should be something. Honesty I’m struggling w/o my Polar NCEP WWIII. It used to be so easy. I’m using a lot of the tools Surfline has and my problem is SL’s model do not go to Honduras like Polar did and the new GFS wave model is way too pulled back, like trying to do the forecast with a wide angled lens. I want to see what’s going on all the way down in the Yucatan Channel. How strong are the winds 20? or 30? how long is the period? 8? or 9? makes all the difference… Polar used to give you all that in minute detail on the same frame and now I have to go searching. I want Texas, LA, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Belize, all the places WFL can get waves from in 1 shot, I need to see it all, like Polar…. I’ve been googling GOMEX models and nothing comes close to Polar, if you know one clue me in… It’s like 1985 again and lets just look at a static WX map and the marine forecast. Lets watch Dick Fletcher on the news at 6pm and we’ll know as much as we do now in 2021. Well that’s my rant… mourning the loss of Polar NCEP WWiii the model I used since I started auarsurf.com in 1998.

RIP dude.


Viola! We waited a long time for this…. Sorry to be a Debby Downer but I’m not down with it too much… Besides this period graphic I couldn’t find anything more useful than what we are already using.


Thursday WFL 4/8/21 8am: This one is starting to look fun. Hope you get some good waves and no red tide. Don’t hype the forecast, it is the gulf disclaimer… but if 3ft at 9 seconds came up late Sunday into Monday and then the wind switched NE overnight, Monday am could have fun SSW swell and NE winds for a bit. Kind of a rare situation, anyways the forecast has not changed and looks to stick. South winds all weekend and then Sunday night a wind switch is forecast. For tomorrow, first south lines are close to shore and short period, Friday PM does not look that good and it may not even get rideable but Saturday will have waves for sure… Yucatan/southern gulf juice is late Sunday into Monday. That’s how it looks to me, I hope you score. NW PR Forecast update below…
2nd Week in April 2021 SOUTHY- Synopsis: A low pressure trough is forecast to sink in over the Northern gulf this weekend. This causes the gradient to tighten a little more and now the entire GOMEX looks to be swept by south winds all weekend. Friday PM looks knee to thigh at best south facers. Saturday Knee high building to waist high at south swell spots with gusty south winds. Sunday starts knee to thigh plus but could build to waist high swell as a stronger pulse fills in from offshore, 3ft at 8 seconds SSW for Sunday PM, target that. That south swell continues into Monday. With a stationary trough/front in the area the winds could blow hard south or they may die at some point Sunday or Monday. So the forecast looks better today. Just thinking out loud here but… if the flow is from the south, doesn’t that keep cleaner water south of the Bay? Seems like your normal level of pollution we’ve always had to deal with unless that thing breaks and then all bets are off. Any red tide right now? I hope not… I hope you get to enjoy the south swell this weekend. The details are fuzzy but the odds at weekend surf are on the way up, more tomorrow.

March was a bit difficult with not much WX and small chances… If you appreciate the hard work and early reports and you feel like donating it’s much appreciated. Paypal on the right side panel- Venmo is preferred and super easy! My Venmo is: Micah-Weaver-8. Your generosity is awesome!


WFL, 6ft at 10 seconds west. Perfect size and period- and if there is offshore or no wind can make for great surfing conditions.


What does the period mean?(basic layman explanation for surfers in WFL) It’s the space between the waves and has to do directly with the power of the surf
Wind waves 4 seconds or less: Crap
Wind waves 5-7seconds rideable but not always much power, at 7seconds it can start to get fun on the gulf, example- when 036 is 7ft at 7seconds thats a good cold front swell and usually waist to chest high.
8 seconds is when it start to turn to real waves.
9-10seconds and up is ground swell for the gulf and can happen from strong fronts with low pressure, a good Yucatan fetch and/or hurricanes.
11 seconds for the gulf is more rare and starts to really thump hard.
13 seconds usually from a distant texas hurricane or Cat 4 or 5 in the middle gulf like Ivan(2004 WAS 13 SECONDS).
Above 13 seconds super rare on the gulf but 1 hurricane last season had 16 second swell in the gulf.

Grower. 2ft at 20 seconds last year. The only time I have surfed a 20 second groundswell in the Atlantic.


For PR 8 seconds is the starting point 7 and below is super weak garbage here. 8-9 is fun at Pools and Sandy Beach bc it does not close out typical period is like 10-11 from EC cold fronts. 12-13 seconds is when it starts to barrel here. 14 and above it really bowls and bends hard as it feels the reef offshore 18-20 seconds is super rare here but great Indo style surf from distant powerful ocean storms.


info@aurasurf.com

If you care about Puerto Rico follow this girl Bianca. She’s really trying hard to help here…


65 thoughts on “April Cold Front

  1. ericito

    woah! had a gnar injury myself. shattered tib fib and kneecap, torn acl mcl meniscus. wasnt sure i would walk again. Went to tampa gen and they put 4 plates and 28 screws in my leg. pretty much totally reinforced ankle to hip. i couldnt walk 6 months. Had my friends shoulder me out to the beach a bunch so i could belly ride waves on my surfboard before i could walk. didnt tell the fam about that though haha. They opened up the new st pete park amid the accident so i knew i HAD to heal because ive been waiting for that my whole life. fast forward and now im walking skating and surfing. def have pain everyday and loss of range of motion, but im just happy to be close to back to normal. I use legal herbs and plants to help with inflammation and pain. gotta stay away from the prescriptions for sure! Stay positive, eat well, stretch often and stay wet!

    on another note the waves have been fun! found a nice bowl last night and this morning! hoping for a little shoal action tomorrow morning!

  2. Fuggin

    Wow Ericito glad you could come back after a gnarly injury like that! It makes you think twice about taking things for granted because things can change quickly in life. Having almost lost this lifestyle is part of what gets me stoked to surf 1ft waves on the log or shred the cul-de-sac with the grom. I agree the waves have been fun! I surfed Friday pm surprisingly alone and had chest high sets all to myself. I was able to get 35min in this morning for some dumpy but clean thigh high insiders and again this afternoon some 1-2footers were on offer at the super secret sandbar 🤙

  3. Fuggin

    GFS/WW3 upgraded today per Levi Cowen and his site tropicaltidbits.com…

    “With the 12Z run today, the GFS model has been upgraded from version 15.3 to version 16.0.

    Notably, wave products from WW3 have been merged into the GFS, and can be found under the “Lower Dynamics” menu for oceanic regions.”

  4. admin Post author

    It is not easy to find if you re looking for it you have to chooose an ocean region image for the wave models to come up…

    Thanks Matt for catching that… IM not on twitter- sorry to say I do NOT like the new WWiii/GFS model… Polar was so much better bc it showed wind barbs and wave heights on the same image also you could see all the way to Belize and N Honduras which is helpful predicting south swells. The new graphics look just like any other wave model. The model predicting wave period is helpful. I chose lower dynamics/ wave period /tropical western atlantic. it shows 8 second period for Friday am…. lets see if it’s true. thanks again Matt

  5. Fuggin

    Some solid south lines were coming in this am. It was knee-thigh with waist-chest sets every 5min or so. It felt eerily similar to an early summer time tropical swell from some spinner off the Yucatan. I’m hopeful for some more later this afternoon as I only had about 45min this am. Micah you rock thx for your reports, insights and the sick pics you share from PR and old school Gulf 🤙

  6. Pat

    Dude hd the forecast showed 7 straight days of fun longboard waves starting yesterday thru this next week everyday and being followed up by a decent coldfront swell coming. We’re not even close to summer doldrums yet. Yesterday and today was insane and could get another pulse sunday night with more fun rides next week if you need to jump in after work or something. And then a decent coldfront swell. Unless your moving away landlocked, you should be fine.

  7. admin Post author

    Pat finally a good surf take after all those hassles….hd is captain negative 😉

  8. Fuggin

    Man HD you’re killing my vibes! Lol buoy still up btw 2ft@9, not quite over yet but with the spring break crowds I wouldn’t blame you for packing it up for the year 😄 jk man you crack me up tho. Friday evening sesh with 50 of my best friends at the popular down south spot was pretty damn good. Chest high wedges off the rocks and solid form to the beach sometimes & clean. Everyone was sharing waves and hooting each other on, really fun despite how many folks were out there. Get it if you can and watch out for those spring breakers! 🤙

  9. hd

    i surfed last friday and had alot of fun. plus an east coast trip a week before. hoping to get out for that nw swell thurs. THEN its over… lol

  10. Ericito

    Yesterday was primo! Super prino! Surfed like 5 hours haha. Caught a fun solo glass little barrel session this morning too. The wind came up a little funky but I took the kiddo out for a few again. Maybe last call this evening? Fun sneaker swell

  11. admin Post author

    i was working on the cmp today watching the Bradenton cams and it looked really fun- so cool to get some Yucatan swell in March
    i heard from a buddy yesterday was good also

  12. Pat

    GFS showing more fronts forecasted to start off april looks like fun west swells and plenty of surf the next month

  13. hd

    starting a new job on monday that will put me closer to the beach in the afternoons (and may even justify a move eventually). all good things in all good time.

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