Thursday 6:00am WFL Surf WX 3/31/21
Thursday Surf WX 6:00am 4/1/21 thanks to everyone who donated! I’ll send you a personal thank you note soon… Remember Speedy Gonzales had a cousin named Slow Poke Rodriguez (he live in PR LOL) This fronr is Slow Poke Rodriguez. 036 is like slack winds and 1ft seas at 6am 100 miles out- then in Mobile Bay Alabama the winds are 360 in a gale! Crazy front reminds me of that March front in 2009 and those poor guys out amberjack fishing… The gulf goes from calm/flat to 35knts and 8-10ft seas in the span of 45 minutes… Any ways this front is taking forever. Ill still think after 2pm and last light is 8:15pm so that’s your window today, try and surf for sure… Back at lunch with an updater… I’m almost done with the project and I get to surf fro a couple hrs this am!!! Finally some waves again down here… out there!
Friday 6am WFL 4/9/21: Missing Polar NCEP NOAA Wavewatch III Gulf Coast Gulf of Mexico wave models: Every day for the last week I’ve been analyzing this system and it’s been locked in for days, not much to add or change, little tweaks… I notice between the GFS near term and the NWS Marine forecast a slight notch up that will eventually result in some fun south swell Sunday PM and Monday(over the southern gulf will it blow south at 20, 25 or 30 tomorrow?). Saturday waist high and windy. But what about today? Seas are forecast to bump up and if you need a Friday slide to wash off the week go right before dark to your best south swell spot with a big log and there should be something. Honesty I’m struggling w/o my Polar NCEP WWIII. It used to be so easy. I’m using a lot of the tools Surfline has and my problem is SL’s model do not go to Honduras like Polar did and the new GFS wave model is way too pulled back, like trying to do the forecast with a wide angled lens. I want to see what’s going on all the way down in the Yucatan Channel. How strong are the winds 20? or 30? how long is the period? 8? or 9? makes all the difference… Polar used to give you all that in minute detail on the same frame and now I have to go searching. I want Texas, LA, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Belize, all the places WFL can get waves from in 1 shot, I need to see it all, like Polar…. I’ve been googling GOMEX models and nothing comes close to Polar, if you know one clue me in… It’s like 1985 again and lets just look at a static WX map and the marine forecast. Lets watch Dick Fletcher on the news at 6pm and we’ll know as much as we do now in 2021. Well that’s my rant… mourning the loss of Polar NCEP WWiii the model I used since I started auarsurf.com in 1998.
Thursday WFL 4/8/21 8am: This one is starting to look fun. Hope you get some good waves and no red tide. Don’t hype the forecast, it is the gulf disclaimer… but if 3ft at 9 seconds came up late Sunday into Monday and then the wind switched NE overnight, Monday am could have fun SSW swell and NE winds for a bit. Kind of a rare situation, anyways the forecast has not changed and looks to stick. South winds all weekend and then Sunday night a wind switch is forecast. For tomorrow, first south lines are close to shore and short period, Friday PM does not look that good and it may not even get rideable but Saturday will have waves for sure… Yucatan/southern gulf juice is late Sunday into Monday. That’s how it looks to me, I hope you score. NW PR Forecast update below…
2nd Week in April 2021 SOUTHY- Synopsis: A low pressure trough is forecast to sink in over the Northern gulf this weekend. This causes the gradient to tighten a little more and now the entire GOMEX looks to be swept by south winds all weekend. Friday PM looks knee to thigh at best south facers. Saturday Knee high building to waist high at south swell spots with gusty south winds. Sunday starts knee to thigh plus but could build to waist high swell as a stronger pulse fills in from offshore, 3ft at 8 seconds SSW for Sunday PM, target that. That south swell continues into Monday. With a stationary trough/front in the area the winds could blow hard south or they may die at some point Sunday or Monday. So the forecast looks better today. Just thinking out loud here but… if the flow is from the south, doesn’t that keep cleaner water south of the Bay? Seems like your normal level of pollution we’ve always had to deal with unless that thing breaks and then all bets are off. Any red tide right now? I hope not… I hope you get to enjoy the south swell this weekend. The details are fuzzy but the odds at weekend surf are on the way up, more tomorrow.
What does the period mean?(basic layman explanation for surfers in WFL) It’s the space between the waves and has to do directly with the power of the surf
Wind waves 4 seconds or less: Crap
Wind waves 5-7seconds rideable but not always much power, at 7seconds it can start to get fun on the gulf, example- when 036 is 7ft at 7seconds thats a good cold front swell and usually waist to chest high.
8 seconds is when it start to turn to real waves.
9-10seconds and up is ground swell for the gulf and can happen from strong fronts with low pressure, a good Yucatan fetch and/or hurricanes.
11 seconds for the gulf is more rare and starts to really thump hard.
13 seconds usually from a distant texas hurricane or Cat 4 or 5 in the middle gulf like Ivan(2004 WAS 13 SECONDS).
Above 13 seconds super rare on the gulf but 1 hurricane last season had 16 second swell in the gulf.
For PR 8 seconds is the starting point 7 and below is super weak garbage here. 8-9 is fun at Pools and Sandy Beach bc it does not close out typical period is like 10-11 from EC cold fronts. 12-13 seconds is when it starts to barrel here. 14 and above it really bowls and bends hard as it feels the reef offshore 18-20 seconds is super rare here but great Indo style surf from distant powerful ocean storms.