Nestor Surf Alert

Saturday WFL 6am 42098 is 6ft at 7 seconds SW and CLW is reporting winds ESE. Venice SSE at 25, PORTS DATA showing south winds with east in them also. The surf could be really good. Heavy rains are moving in. 42099 is 13ft at 10 seconds SW. 7am add on: The majority of wind sites are now reporting winds SSE in the range of 20 plus. Looks to be building SW swell with lots of rain in the area and SSE winds locally and a 4ft storm tide. I know the perfect spot… Jetty spots that favor SSE winds and have a shallow sand bar… Hope you score… Beaches that face the N could have a fun drift wave… In the gray light of dawn with lots of rain, Venice looks waist to chest choppy, Nokomis would probably be clean. Bradenton looks chest high plus but side shore winds, St Pete has a thumping waist to chest high wave and IRB looks knee high. So SW swell still filling in with stormy conditions.

Friday Update Below-

Friday 5pm Bradenton 1ft waves. Not looking good for a Friday evening surf even though Nestor is closing in on the Panhandle. Saturday will have chunky waves and Sunday also.


Friday WFL 7am 10/18/2019: This morning the surf is calm with mucho lightning offshore. PTC 16 is impressive with lots of gnarly convection and a good pressure drop last night. Strong winds are firing up in the southern gulf but the big question is: Will it arrive in time? Will there be surf today? Some models give it a chance, others don’t. Preface this take by saying ‘back in the day, at the beginning of a swell like this, that first part of the leading edge could sometimes come in early’ while the wind was still SE or SSE and you could catch some clean swell before it got stormy so that is the mission. But whether the swell cooperates or not we will wait 9 or 10hrs to find out. I would be checking it hourly all afternoon with low expectations. Standing on the beach at 6pm with my floaty board… Is there any place you can surf after dark? Saturday will most likely awake to stormy, choppy head high chunk, but it’s good to check the wind at 6am, just in case. Best time to surf may be later Saturday and Sunday am. Sunday am the wind could be light NE esp down south. Waist to chest, optimistically, the swell is forecast to trend down and Sunday am (you know how it goes) could be small… Maybe the whole point of this surf event is not to jump it early or shred the clean up late but just to charge some stormy chunk mid day Saturday? Anyway it goes, glad there is finally surf and I hope you score.
Thursday 10/17 7:26am WFL: A solid storm is brewing in the opposite corner of the gulf. It is forecast to cross the entire GOMEX to the Big Bend of Florida and exit into the Atlantic. It will bring a long fetch of SW surf and chunky conditions all weekend long. It looks earlier today so on the current track there will be surf late Friday… (Tweaked the specifics)Thursday am looks like a leftover 1ft line and NE winds blowing it calm. Friday Building surf in the afternoon, best time to surf the last few hours of light at south swell spots. Hopefully some real swell shows right before dark Friday in the chest high range on sets with 20knt plus SSE winds, jettys could be fun. Saturday looks like a hard SW blow 20-30knts and up to head high south waves choppy, building. Winds should die late Saturday a little bit. Sunday am wind call: N at 5-10knts… SW swell in the water, waist to chest high, should be a funday Sunday, waves getting smaller after lunch but surf all day. Monday knee to thigh with more south winds as a cold front approaches. Tuesday would be the forecast frontal passage late. 96L opens the door for a mid-October cool down. This front when it does go by could bring cooler WX and a knee to thigh clean NNW swell. More on that later.

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21 thoughts on “Nestor Surf Alert

  1. admin Post author

    Gabe Medina at the surf ranch- do you care? I thought it was rad! his last wave anyways. I actually liked the event more this year knowing what was going on a bit more, focus on the details of pro surfing. What did you think?

    When will the 1st cold front pass?

  2. hd

    regarding the freshwater pro, gymnastics belong in a gym. they need to move the contest elsewhere. it gets so boring after a little while imo. cold front wise, my bet is last week of october or early november, it’s hotter than hell still here save for a few hours around dawn.

  3. DW

    Even in the WFL flat times I enjoy this site and MW’s thoughts and positivity.
    “can we get a small wave?”…all we ever gets is small waves! 😊
    I remember when my son was little and got spooked by head high waves, now he has to look out for me! “40’s are great”… I agree and even the 50’s you’ll do good but find my 60’s to be tough sledding as reaction times slows down. Still better than golf!

  4. Fuggin

    Bring on the fronts! Did most of my surfing this summer outside of WFL. Barry and spring are just a glimmer in my memory and I’m ready for cooler wx and consistent waist high plus c-front swells with some tx/la bomb lows mixed in there 🤙

  5. KAB

    I love that shot of Sunset beach in the morning. I met Mo that morning for the 1st time and he was solo taking water shots with an extra large water lens camera. He was a super friendly and outgoing guy. I ask him why he wasn’t surfing but now I understand his purpose. I learned something new that day. Follow ur dreams and strive for greatness and ask for help and He will share his glory for all to see. Have an awesome Sunday and pray for waves gulf coast. The dry spell is almost a memory.

  6. Ericito

    Packed up the van with a whole free and caught ponce fun on Sunday. Solid for summer. It was crazy for me, not surfing at all for a month gulfside to a bit over head with 200 people. Fun day with the boys amd some mental waves!!!

  7. Ericito

    Caught a fun high tide session frpm 1-4 south of TI . Kinda dropped out with the lower but I just grabbed the fun shape and kept surfing!

  8. Trigg

    Stoked for you! Will be putting wife and baby on notice for the weekend! Praying for waves, but no terrible storm!

  9. Fuggin

    Stoked on the forecast! Hoping to find some time between work and family this weekend. I’m due in at 8am Sunday and will try for a pre-dawn patrol 30-45min session (I guess I’ll pretend I’m in a heat). Work is 10min from my go to spot so it’s gonna be tight but doable. Man can’t wait for daylight saving to give me that extra hour! Hope everyone scores! The 🤙

  10. RUSS-D

    ⛈🌩⛈🌀🌀🌊🌊 I am heading out later today looking for some chunky nuggets to surf. I seriously can’t remeber the last time I paddled out. Hopefully the winds lay down a bit for the evening sessions. I hope everyone scores some ridiculously fun surf wherever you go. 🏄‍♂️🏄‍♀️🏄‍♂️🏄‍♀️🏄‍♂️🏄‍♂️🏄‍♀️🏄‍♀️🏄‍♂️

  11. JDH

    ^Literally 10 minutes after I write this, the winds swung more onshore.
    I watched the cam for 45 mins and that 11 second energy showed up with some screen wide lines that had hollow sections. It was there for a short time.

  12. MattyB

    Thanks Micah for the 6 am update! Some fun shoulder high runners up north. Lots of paddling but well worth it. Got two hours in before the wind machine really started cranking.

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