Michael Cat4

Monday evening when the swell 1st hit.

Noon Thursday St Pete

Thursday Noon Update: Looks waist occ chest. st pete looks fun.

Thurs 7am WFL Update: GM GC surfed out yet? In the pre dawn light the surf has dropped off a bit. 098 our lone sentinel is reading 5ft@8 west. Last night most of the 10 second west swell imploded on the snad bars. There will still be some fun waves at the right spots today but it looks not that great on the cams at the moment with solid onshore winds. Manatee Cnty looked bigger and chunkier than Venice this am, call the best spots chest high and choppy this am. The winds have already dropped and will continue to do so thru the morning so maybe mid morning the surf will look better. Tomorrow looks 1 to maybe 2ft and the weekend pretty calm as some slightly cooler air filters into the state. Next week looks a little interesting for WFL so check back. How do you rate the Michael swell? How was the water? Did you get sick? Let us know in the comments. Thanks! and thanks to everyone who donated! your generosity is much appreciated. ill be busy those weekends.

One from yesterday.


Wednesday 7am WFL DP Report: Michael is a beast. Same size and strength as Maria. I feel super bad for those guys. Meanwhile on the cams at dawn the wind has gone SSE and SE and the sideshore wind, actually looks to me like it’s knocking down the size on the cams in B-ton. Call it chest to head high getting choppy with strong sideshore winds. Jetty spots and north Pinellas spots that face the north will be cleaner. The swell is chunky 6-8ft@11 seconds and pure SW with a solid period so it should get in. If it’s not that big at your spot it’s the shallow shelf that is knocking it down. Storm tide(PORTS data) at 4ft so take that into effect also, needs a shallow sand bar. I hope you score. Tomorrow, the west swell should be in the water, chest high swell with 10-15knt W and NW winds(disclaimer- this forecast is based on the Ivan event, very similar you never know, yesterday’s dp was a knee high freak out but the real swell was just a few hours late, we’ll talk about that later) I hope the folks in the panhandle stay safe. I have a feeling they are going to need some help after this monster is said and done.

Site Note-
Talking about needing help- my pc died, we get storms here but lately it has been super juiced and violent. my pc got damaged and needs to be replaced(estimated $400) if you feel like helping you can hit the donate button… sorry for the peripheral garbage on here, a necessary evil at this point and Im trying to figure out how the new layout works, be patient… update mid day… if you scored tell us about it in the comments.




 

 


Tuesday 7am WFL: The flow is super strong offshore and no real swell has shown up from Michael yet. Any time now some lines should start rolling in this morning but at the moment it is a 1ft skim line up and down the coast, maybe knee plus at the very best spot. weird it was bigger last night but it is on the way… I gotta go to work, update after lunch. Hope you are there when it fills in and you get some fun waves.

Monday am WFL Surf Forecast:
Michael went thru a period of rapid intensification. The swell will be pushing up into the gulf tonight and should be on the beach in the am (disclaimer: with the gulf it can be super fickle but it should not be flat for the dp tomorrow). Building surf on Tuesday as the wind clocks from ESE to SSE by afternoon Tuesday. With the intensity bumped up head high surf will be on tap with the possibility of OH surf at the best spots in the afternoon thru Wednesday as the SW part of the swell looks to be real chunky. Thursday the swell starts to drop but still plenty rideable. Thursday could glass off at some point too with residual swell from the southern gulf still hitting the best south swell spots. Water quality: Feel free to use the comments for updates on where to surf. It’s been flat for a long time and we all need to get some but where? where is the clean water? anywhere? also if anyone gets sick let us know, public service announcement style. We all have surfed in red tide before- what makes this one worse? I heard the algae in SE FL is more dangerous to humans than red tide. Try not to get sick…

Sunday 7am WFL Tropics: take it with a grain of salt but from what I saw tomorrow will be calm but Tuesday will see building south swell in the morning, maybe a good day to DP but it depends on how much swell comes in and how early. The wind should still be offshore Tuesday am like ESE at 15 plus with my guess waist high south swell at best spots. Tuesday the surf will get better as Michael moves up in to the gulf. The winds may clock as soon as mid day Tuesday going SSE then south so Jettys would be the call. Wednesday looks like chunky SW swell, head high plus at the best spots but with 20knt SW winds. Smaller leftovers for Thursday. That’s how it looks to me… Stoked for you guys…
PR: Leslie started on 9/20 as a piece of energy from Florence broke off and stalled in the middle ATL. What has made Leslie so special is the high next to her sending a great fetch straight at the Caribbean. Leslie has one more pulse expected Thursday this week. By then she will be headed into history… This has been the longest storm I can remember…

Saturday 3pm WFL:
Sorry for the non report this am. Im sure you’ve seen… we got tropics! stoked for you guys. I hear the water quality is better is some places than in others so check around as you get ready to surf. The h2o quality could factor into where you surf. we gained a day on the forecast, best spots could see something coming up on the 9th, try to surf the beginning of the swell when it will be offshore… then it will go onshore hard as he heads north. Maybe CLW will be good when it’s hard south. Wax em up!

WFL 7am 60% Updater for Friday: Since yesterday the surf chances have increased a bit. 90hrs and the waves are on the way. Yesterday was 120hrs so it’s been consistent for a day now as the models bite on the pattern. It’s pretty easy to figure out; Leslie finally slides east and the high slips in behind her, on the corner of the high, low pressure forms in the NW Caribbean. It is forecast to ride up the Yucatan leaving it’s right side (the south wind side) in the channel vs the gradient against the high and shooting a fetch into the southern gulf. I’m not looking for organization. Im looking for south winds in the channel or southern gulf. Organization will help but it’s all about the fetch. I’m sticking with the 10th as the potential day for some swell but don’t start planning quite yet like we’ve said be4 just keep it flojo but it’s looking like some waves on the way next week. 🙂


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81 thoughts on “Michael Cat4

  1. RUSS-D

    I ended up staying on our coast and going for a bike ride. I woke up and it took me about 15 minutes to walk comfortably. My back was all jacked up this morning.

  2. Rob Hyypio

    Caught some fun waves on the EC yesterday, Bucs win, and no accidents on I-4 … it was a good day!

    Sadly, the red tide is here in full force on the Pinellas Beaches. We were lucky to have escaped it for as long as we did. But … now, just hoping that it clears out soon. To be honest, if there were waves here right now, I don’t think that I’d paddle out in that soup. It’s wretched …

    GO BUCS!

  3. Higgy Baby

    Stayed in Cocoa beach this weekend and got some good rides next to Lori Wilson park, so happy the hotel had a hot tub 👍👍🤙

  4. Ericito

    Pretty much surfed ponce exclusively a bunch for the Florence swell, 10/10! Was really awesome there every time I went over! Stoked for you all down in PR, planning to bring the fam this year, and have a reg fam surf trip. El sal looked mental! Many blessings to everyone!

  5. Rob Hyypio

    Micah –

    The Euro run this afternoon has that blob penetrating the YUK late Sunday and entering the Gulf. By mid week, it looks to have full wrap … and I won’t even say what it does in the forecast from Wednesday onward. If you haven’t seen yet – def worthy of a look!!

  6. Evy

    Wasn’t there a stormed – Juan ??? that stalled – I didn’t surf then, wasn’t in SWFL either, but I remember someone telling me a story about Juan and the storm churned out waves for days… we still have red-tide KAKA here…. I’ve been in dry-dock since July 8th — this was the summer that wasNOT……I dare not whine when so much wild life…. our sea-amigos have died — I keep praying LadyGulf will be able to heal and rebound….

  7. admin Post author

    wow Evy sorry for the extended time in dry dock… thanks for the update

    Im heart broke for the loss of our marine friends, from the dolphins and turtles to every last sardine

  8. Joe

    Only way I’d surf in this current local water is if anyone had a spare hazmat suit I could borrow…

  9. admin Post author

    I heard the water at st pete beach is not too bad, surfable… but there is a bloom offshore

  10. fuggin

    Still noticeable red tide in srq but not too bad. I think the offshore winds will be a blessing Tues but once it goes sse ssw to sw the junk will be on us. I will be hunting for clean water somewheres. Never surfed Pinellas before but seeing reports up there….sigh….

  11. Ericiti

    Clearwater beach is red tide free. Been going up there to swim with the grom. North of sand key pass is crystal clear. But who knows about the future

  12. JDH

    Where? Lol. In Pinellas when it’s strong south southeast with real swell coming in, I surf the souther part of sand key where the bend north is.
    I’ve caught long reeling lefts there on conditions like this with Noone out. If you know where to park, it’s there for the taking.
    Nobody will be there, though.
    Enjoy the circus at sunset.
    Down south in Sarasota, south lido on these strong south southeast swells is fairly clean with siesta point cutting off alot of chop and wind, with the swell wrapping around siesta and coming in without being ripped apart.
    I don’t mind telling anybody. Noone is ever out there anyways.
    Happy hunting

  13. listen2bob

    JDH is correct, an infamous spot from the late 90’s may rise from the ashes like it does every now and then on the strong south. See ya at the real Sandbags

  14. Bfisch

    The Algae can make you sick, but the real issue is the high levels of bacteria from all of the dead fish & creatures. I walked the beach last night and it was a fish bone yard of death all over the shoreline and in the water. You don’t want to cut yourself on those bones or in that water. Go north of Tampa Bay or south to Captiva.

  15. admin Post author

    Thanks everyone, reader beware right? I’ve heard reports today of clean water at the shoreline in many places manatee, pinellas, even siesta but the sw wind could blow it back in. be safe… the sunset cam has a perfect 1ft wave so clean and clean water at the moment

  16. Higgy Baby

    Went kayaking yesterday in Treasure island, the water was clear but had some funky brown stuff hanging around on the bottom and it didn’t look like seaweed. Hope we all get some waves and nobody gets sick.

  17. JDH

    Bob, you know how it can get.

    Hey Fuggin, if you got the time to make the trip up over the Skyway, it’ll be worth it. If you can time it where the swell angle is more west before the onshores, it can light up, up here.
    I went out at in Nokomis in July and it took me a good week to feel right from breathing in that cess pool. If you can head north.

    Micah, what in the heck dude! Why can’t there ever be waves when you’re here!?
    I know you just had one sweet run of beginning of October swell in Puerto Rico but isn’t it still tough to see a storm setting up on your Suncoast roots?

  18. Sean Matthews

    Did red tide clean up 4 days in Madeira beach and treasure island ended up getting sick and on antibiotics- this is not a normal red tide- this one is different. Less coughing and tickle in the throat and more hazardous for humans from my experience.

  19. Abraham J Stewart

    I woke up early this morning to get some work done and maybe get some surf with the approaching cane. Pretty stoked that there is a hurricane setup with some potential waves. Thoughts of where to go, what’s the best spot go through my head. As I do my internet research stuff to find the conditions, I soon realized (and remembered) that we are still in the midst of one of the worst ecological disasters that has ever hit my home. There is no safe place to go when the onshores kick back up, and honestly I don’t want to go bathe around in decomposing organic material. Please watch this short video that baynews9 just released about a week ago in collaboration with USF. http://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2018/10/02/satellite-images-size-location-red-tide-bloom#
    I feel like a total Debbie downer, but this poor state, our poor Gulf. Most people I talk to during the day to day grind 50 miles inland don’t even realize what red tide is or that we are being affected still.
    Massive changes are needed to help restore proper water flow in the state of Florida, not just in the coastal communities being affected, but the central flow of water through the state.
    Idk I guess I’m just venting but,
    I can’t risk getting sick for some waves- I’m getting to old for this- need to keep working and take care of my kids. My most favorite outlet is literally plagued, traffic is slow and horrifying to watch, the election news is 🤮. Part of me wishes I was just ignorant to the facts, or that I didn’t pay attention to what’s going on so that these issues wouldn’t trouble me so much. But this is life right? Nobody said thing would be fair.

  20. MattyB

    I’m at the beach now. Last night was bigger yet the hurricane was farther away. Back in the day it would of been chest high by now. What happened to the Yucatán swell we used to live for?

  21. Listen2bob

    I remember it usually doing this, first pulse through the channel, then blocked by Cuba. Then fills in right as the wind switches. Good news is that my superbank is setup perfect as soon as it builds 2 more feet.

  22. G-dawg

    Man started really grinding around noon.
    I surf north Manatee 7_11 and zoo 12-2.
    Wiped out !!!
    Water was sketchy at second spot but waves were
    Good so *#$*
    Sleeping good tonight, l hope l wake up for work lol

  23. Mattyb

    Man did it turn on. The freshly nourished beaches were perfect for this swell. Zero wind all day. It was so good to see barrels up and down the beach.

  24. Ron

    Indeed, twin piers was 4-7ft last night with great shape and offshore winds. It actually reminded me of Ala Moana in Hawaii.

  25. MattyB

    Red tide is here in force. Yesterday was the worst it has been. Lots of dead fish from the Gulf like Spanish mackerel and all sorts of reef fish in the sand key area. Birds are eating them which sucks. I tried to burry as many as I could. Michael has brought it up from Ft Myers and now I fear it will be with us for sometime. I’m sure the red tides fuel: lake O, will start discharging soon. Not sure what the future holds. Probably just more dead marine life.

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