A Good May, on it’s way out…

Thurs 5/31 7am WFL Best May Ever? How many Cayo Huesos was that? Pretty little 1ft South Line this am, last day of May 2018. Some spots could be rideable on a LB but it’s really small. The 1ft line should be around today. It is not forecast to bump back up too much this afternoon. Friday and Saturday look calm but Sunday could have some wind waves late in the day before dark. Monday and Tuesday next week look to have knee to occ waist high surf with onshore flow. Enjoy your day.

Still flat this am but it’s on the way. Best day looks to be Sunday…


May 2009, Cayo Hueso.

About the forecaster: My name is Micah Weaver. I’m from St Petersburg, Florida. I started forecasting for the WFL gulf in the mid 1980’s and continue to do so up to today. I currently live in Rincon, Puerto Rico. Thanks for visiting aurasurf.com

117 thoughts on “A Good May, on it’s way out…

  1. EVY

    Enjoyed the May 8th read…good story with the morning cup….do you collect all these wonderful essays?
    BigSmile……. you know where I’m heading with this……a collection of your BEST would make for so very good reading.

  2. EVY

    At Best South Facers…..really, really want this to happen…means it’ll go off at my most favorite spot – been a long time since I had some fun there……. too long

  3. admin Post author

    Evy there will be something for you to surf at your spot, keep an eye on it Tuesday.

  4. Fuggin

    There is definitely some loggable waves down here in sarasota county. Tide is super high and still coming in for the next 3hrs ๐Ÿค”almost looks like a storm tide. Form not great but waves for sure. Gonna check a few more sandbars and hit it somewhere. Happy hunting everyone!

  5. Joseph Brozeph

    Breaking news: JJF is really good at surfing and north jetty after storm sunset was amazing Tuesday night with clean occasional thigh sets

  6. EVY

    What Fuggin said….. form not great (at all) but I kept at it till I got 3 okayyyyyyyyyyyy rides and then just floated around… the soaking was good for the soul…wondered if it cleaned up @sunset – glad it did for those who got out

  7. Rob Hyypio

    Both “go to” models have a definitive low pressure forming. GFS has it tracking more to the East and being just North of Cuba over Memorial Day weekend. I’d love to get some waves out of this thing … need to get some surf in before our trip. Way too far out to claim it yet – but certainly bears watching (hoping for a good track for quality waves).

  8. JDH

    There were waves if you knew where to look the past couple of days. It actually does break in Pinellas other than two places. Just got to walk and look.

  9. Fuggin

    We had some fun waves down here last night. Waist high with plus sets and light wind. Also…42098 is pinging 3ft@7sec wtf I have to go to work. Someone get it!

  10. DW

    Question MW – what does “itโ€™s CLIMO” mean?

    PS, can concur w JHD’s comment above. Tues and Wed eve I caught really fun LB surf at a certain Pinellas sandbar where the lefts peel on a small south wind swell…only a couple others out besides me. ๐Ÿ™‚

  11. Rob Hyypio

    I ate lunch in my car yesterday while sitting at sunset park (just south of Woody’s) overlooking the Pass. At high tide, the pass had a rideable LB peak … but here’s the kicker. Because it was high tide and all out of the south, there was a legit wave that was wrapping all the way on the inside of the pass and breaking at knee high along the inside of the seawall (where / what people call the “dog beach”) … Total novelty wave … I would have loved to be on it. Anyone ever see that or surf it before?

  12. Ericito

    Surfed NJ yesterday morning a couple hours with only a few out, it was fun! Surfed the construction zone at spb last night with also was fun!

  13. Bfisch

    Such a fun sesh at NJ last night. Why can small waves be so fun? I love surfing real waves but small perfection with friends all around is just too much fun ๐Ÿคช

  14. admin Post author

    Climatological Outlook
    An outlook based upon climatological statistics for a region, abbreviated as CL on seasonal outlook maps. CL indicates that the climate outlook has an equal chance of being above normal, normal, or below normal.

    I picked it up from discussion dude on the NWS Ruskin years back. Meaning acc to stats it’s what supposed to happen in normal WX conditions during that season.
    i.e during May-July it’s normal to see home grown low pressures ride up WFL like the last one, avg year would have at least one low like the mid may low, hope that makes sense

    to get cold fronts in December would be CLIMO, to get no cold fronts in December would not be CLIMO

  15. DW

    Thanks for the explanation of CLIMO.

    FYI – Maybe a local can explain it better but Casey Key is the barrier island on north side of Venice inlet. So VNJ and Nokomis are on Casey Key. Back in the day were some biggly snook by the docks and bridges on that key and not just out on the jetty, prob still are. ๐Ÿ™‚

  16. Fuggin

    Sometimes the sandbar will line up there on the right tide and swell direction. Inside nuggs!

  17. DW

    …there will be a chance for some knee to thigh south well at the best south facers

    Talking Heads…”same as it ever was, same as it ever was”

    I’ll take it if it comes…on a LB naturally , the proper choice for just conditions. ๐Ÿ™‚

  18. Rob Hyypio

    Pretty big differences between this morning’s runs of GFS versus the ECMWF (Euro model) this morning. Looks to me like we want to root for the track that Euro is forecasting. It actually has it developing with a tightly wrapped center of circulation out in the mid Gulf and making landfall Louisiana area Sunday morning – giving us a weekend with waves. fingers crossed.

  19. admin Post author

    GFS V the Euro… Last hurricane season the GFS won. place your bets, check back next Monday to see who wins. GFS up the gut or Euro with the left sweep, which will it be?

  20. Fuggin

    I’ll bet a bar of moderately used wax that it goes somewhere in the middle. Whatever happens, it will be a wet week for us. I think we will get waves, just how big will they be is the question. Levi is the man!

  21. Rob Hyypio

    During Irma last year, on her approach to Florida I recall the EURO outperforming the GFS until the very end where both were predicting landfall. The EURO had it coming up Gulfside, and GFS had it splitting the state. GFS won the landfall battle (wow – did we ever dodge a bullet there!)

    I’m with Fuggin … my take is that the track is more or less in the center of where they are both forecasting. The further west it goes, the better window for waves I think. I am hopeful. Waist high sounds like a lot of fun right now!

  22. Cde

    I canโ€™t wait for Levi to start posting videos this season. Iโ€™ve watched him religiously since you first posted about him in here. So thank you for that! I have trouble listening to any other forecast or analysis when it comes time for the tropics to fire up.

  23. admin Post author

    Yes Levi is awesome I just wish he would post more often, video posts are more complicated in my opinion than blog posts so I am stoked to hear his take

    GFS was nails last year on Harvey Irma and Maria, I didnt watch the final approach to SW Florida but Irma skirting PR after smashing the islands was dead on with the GFS run after run, day after day, 120 plus hrs out

  24. Fuggin

    Check Levi out on Twitter @TropicalTidbits he posts there often. As for our system, doesn’t look like much today. It is headed into the right spot but no south winds atm and nhc doesn’t think there will be any organization for a few days at least until it gets into the Gulf. EC looks chunky this week.

  25. EVY

    Really nice to read the comments about Levi, I fist met him on WU when he was a Homeschooler -2005 – living in Alaska… it’s been a trip watching him grow-up, initially protecting him from WU trolls and now seeing his Tropical Tidbits….We were all always amazed that a kid living in the wilds of Alaska could call tropical weather so well…. last we spoke, he still hadn’t tried surfing ….but he has always been keen for the experience….

  26. admin Post author

    The GFS has performed pretty badly on this one so far. Maybe she does not check into rehab until June 1? ๐Ÿ™‚ can’t trust it…

  27. DW

    Here’s hoping this one will spin up like that one last season resulting in a little 40mph TS right off the Pinellas coast. No damage just some rain and it gave a 2 hour shot of waist occ.chest offshore barrels before moving onshore in AMI and poof!, swell was gone. Blink and ya missed it. Whatever we get will be appreciated.

  28. fbc

    Woooot! small groundswell coming our way… when it’s small and there’s a slight sea surge it really softens the swell at certain popular spots… lots of south facing beaches to explore, hope south wind don’t get crazy. Speaking of crazy… GFS… it shows SW-W wind flow pointing at us on Sunday with winds curving more SE around our coast.. nice setup

  29. Bfisch

    If it was just a trough, then we would get the Key West fetch. Early season tropical storms in the Gulf always prove to be big SE blows and only knee high at best. Panhandle will get some but Texas is about to go off! Anyone want to join me for a trip to Bob Hall Pier? I’m not seeing any South or SW wind fields in the Caribbean or Gulf. Hopefully I’m completely wrong and we get to all surf crowded Head high waves in my backyard…

  30. JDH

    M-dub, I lived just north of DT Sarasota in the early 90s taking the bus down 41 to the bust stop at Albee rd, then walking down to the inlet and then heading north making the walk all the way to Turtle Beach, then walk up past ….. to eventually getting to Siesta where I could pick up the bus again.
    There’s a little slight bend about 2 miles north where there’s rock in front of a few mansions. When it’s clean swell an outgoing tide it throws over heavy for the GC. It doesn’t break that we’ll on mediocre swell. Too deep.
    Breaks better on south than north.
    Accessibility is key. Not one place to park.
    Beautiful drive though.

  31. JDH

    Times on our side yall. Forward speed is slow.
    Those quick moving TS’s don’t allow that SW quardrent to build up some fetch. That persistent SE only allows for a small background swell to slightly bend in. The Slower forward speed should help our chances.

  32. Bfisch

    Scratch my last comment! JDH is correct. The buoy just below the channel lit up with South & now WSW winds. We be surfin…

  33. Rob Hyypio

    Take your time today, ladies and gents. Buoy is 4.6′ out of the SE … we wont get anything here until the MWD goes S and then SSW … maybe later today (Sat) … tomorrow morning should have the goods.

  34. Cam

    Question… I have lived on the east coast of Florida the last three years and before that in the panhandle where I surfed the gulf constantly when we had waves. A buddy and myself are planning to make our way over from Brevard in the morning and need some advice on where to surf with Alberto stirring things up in the gulf. Will the drive be worth it? Any help would greatly be appreciated. Thanks guys

  35. Skrims

    The gulf is a fickle b*tch. Could be firing and could be moody and barely working. Good tide in the morning. Find the piers in AMI and you can find diff waves within a few miles each direction. Hit it as early as possible and bring good tunes for the rainy ride over and back.

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