Thurs 5/31 7am WFL Best May Ever? How many Cayo Huesos was that? Pretty little 1ft South Line this am, last day of May 2018. Some spots could be rideable on a LB but it’s really small. The 1ft line should be around today. It is not forecast to bump back up too much this afternoon. Friday and Saturday look calm but Sunday could have some wind waves late in the day before dark. Monday and Tuesday next week look to have knee to occ waist high surf with onshore flow. Enjoy your day.
NW PR: Still flat this am but it’s on the way. Best day looks to be Sunday…
20 YEARS AURASURF.COM- 1998-2018.
May 2009, Cayo Hueso.
About the forecaster: My name is Micah Weaver. I’m from St Petersburg, Florida. I started forecasting for the WFL gulf in the mid 1980’s and continue to do so up to today. I currently live in Rincon, Puerto Rico. Thanks for visiting aurasurf.com
SK #8 – May time in the brine be mine-
There is definitely some loggable waves down here in sarasota county. Tide is super high and still coming in for the next 3hrs ?almost looks like a storm tide. Form not great but waves for sure. Gonna check a few more sandbars and hit it somewhere. Happy hunting everyone!
Breaking news: JJF is really good at surfing and north jetty after storm sunset was amazing Tuesday night with clean occasional thigh sets
THANKS JOE!!! did you destroy the jetty cam?!!! SL says EPIC this am for Venice Jetty but no cam hahahaha
how much rain have you guys got from the gulf low?
https://www.theinertia.com/surf/ive-visited-puerto-rico-twice-since-hurricane-maria-heres-why-you-shouldnt-be-afraid-to-go/?pid=43207
What Fuggin said….. form not great (at all) but I kept at it till I got 3 okayyyyyyyyyyyy rides and then just floated around… the soaking was good for the soul…wondered if it cleaned up @sunset – glad it did for those who got out
Both “go to” models have a definitive low pressure forming. GFS has it tracking more to the East and being just North of Cuba over Memorial Day weekend. I’d love to get some waves out of this thing … need to get some surf in before our trip. Way too far out to claim it yet – but certainly bears watching (hoping for a good track for quality waves).
There were waves if you knew where to look the past couple of days. It actually does break in Pinellas other than two places. Just got to walk and look.
We had some fun waves down here last night. Waist high with plus sets and light wind. Also…42098 is pinging 3ft@7sec wtf I have to go to work. Someone get it!
Question MW – what does “it’s CLIMO” mean?
PS, can concur w JHD’s comment above. Tues and Wed eve I caught really fun LB surf at a certain Pinellas sandbar where the lefts peel on a small south wind swell…only a couple others out besides me. 🙂
Climatological Outlook
An outlook based upon climatological statistics for a region, abbreviated as CL on seasonal outlook maps. CL indicates that the climate outlook has an equal chance of being above normal, normal, or below normal.
I picked it up from discussion dude on the NWS Ruskin years back. Meaning acc to stats it’s what supposed to happen in normal WX conditions during that season.
i.e during May-July it’s normal to see home grown low pressures ride up WFL like the last one, avg year would have at least one low like the mid may low, hope that makes sense
to get cold fronts in December would be CLIMO, to get no cold fronts in December would not be CLIMO
I ate lunch in my car yesterday while sitting at sunset park (just south of Woody’s) overlooking the Pass. At high tide, the pass had a rideable LB peak … but here’s the kicker. Because it was high tide and all out of the south, there was a legit wave that was wrapping all the way on the inside of the pass and breaking at knee high along the inside of the seawall (where / what people call the “dog beach”) … Total novelty wave … I would have loved to be on it. Anyone ever see that or surf it before?
Surfed NJ yesterday morning a couple hours with only a few out, it was fun! Surfed the construction zone at spb last night with also was fun!
Such a fun sesh at NJ last night. Why can small waves be so fun? I love surfing real waves but small perfection with friends all around is just too much fun ?
Thanks for the explanation of CLIMO.
FYI – Maybe a local can explain it better but Casey Key is the barrier island on north side of Venice inlet. So VNJ and Nokomis are on Casey Key. Back in the day were some biggly snook by the docks and bridges on that key and not just out on the jetty, prob still are. 🙂
Is there a wave up the beach from nvj? Or is that the only spot?
Sometimes the sandbar will line up there on the right tide and swell direction. Inside nuggs!
I agree up the beach breaks!
Inside nuggs are the best!
…there will be a chance for some knee to thigh south well at the best south facers
Talking Heads…”same as it ever was, same as it ever was”
I’ll take it if it comes…on a LB naturally , the proper choice for just conditions. 🙂
Pretty big differences between this morning’s runs of GFS versus the ECMWF (Euro model) this morning. Looks to me like we want to root for the track that Euro is forecasting. It actually has it developing with a tightly wrapped center of circulation out in the mid Gulf and making landfall Louisiana area Sunday morning – giving us a weekend with waves. fingers crossed.
GFS V the Euro… Last hurricane season the GFS won. place your bets, check back next Monday to see who wins. GFS up the gut or Euro with the left sweep, which will it be?
I’ll bet a bar of moderately used wax that it goes somewhere in the middle. Whatever happens, it will be a wet week for us. I think we will get waves, just how big will they be is the question. Levi is the man!
During Irma last year, on her approach to Florida I recall the EURO outperforming the GFS until the very end where both were predicting landfall. The EURO had it coming up Gulfside, and GFS had it splitting the state. GFS won the landfall battle (wow – did we ever dodge a bullet there!)
I’m with Fuggin … my take is that the track is more or less in the center of where they are both forecasting. The further west it goes, the better window for waves I think. I am hopeful. Waist high sounds like a lot of fun right now!
I can’t wait for Levi to start posting videos this season. I’ve watched him religiously since you first posted about him in here. So thank you for that! I have trouble listening to any other forecast or analysis when it comes time for the tropics to fire up.
Yes Levi is awesome I just wish he would post more often, video posts are more complicated in my opinion than blog posts so I am stoked to hear his take
GFS was nails last year on Harvey Irma and Maria, I didnt watch the final approach to SW Florida but Irma skirting PR after smashing the islands was dead on with the GFS run after run, day after day, 120 plus hrs out
https://www.facebook.com/eric.caloosa/videos/10214237848394339/
Eric’s facebook update on Upham … thanks Eric ….
Rooting for EURO on this one..we need some waves!
Check Levi out on Twitter @TropicalTidbits he posts there often. As for our system, doesn’t look like much today. It is headed into the right spot but no south winds atm and nhc doesn’t think there will be any organization for a few days at least until it gets into the Gulf. EC looks chunky this week.
Really nice to read the comments about Levi, I fist met him on WU when he was a Homeschooler -2005 – living in Alaska… it’s been a trip watching him grow-up, initially protecting him from WU trolls and now seeing his Tropical Tidbits….We were all always amazed that a kid living in the wilds of Alaska could call tropical weather so well…. last we spoke, he still hadn’t tried surfing ….but he has always been keen for the experience….
The GFS has performed pretty badly on this one so far. Maybe she does not check into rehab until June 1? 🙂 can’t trust it…
Here’s hoping this one will spin up like that one last season resulting in a little 40mph TS right off the Pinellas coast. No damage just some rain and it gave a 2 hour shot of waist occ.chest offshore barrels before moving onshore in AMI and poof!, swell was gone. Blink and ya missed it. Whatever we get will be appreciated.
It’s on boys and girls, schwing time!
Woooot! small groundswell coming our way… when it’s small and there’s a slight sea surge it really softens the swell at certain popular spots… lots of south facing beaches to explore, hope south wind don’t get crazy. Speaking of crazy… GFS… it shows SW-W wind flow pointing at us on Sunday with winds curving more SE around our coast.. nice setup
If it was just a trough, then we would get the Key West fetch. Early season tropical storms in the Gulf always prove to be big SE blows and only knee high at best. Panhandle will get some but Texas is about to go off! Anyone want to join me for a trip to Bob Hall Pier? I’m not seeing any South or SW wind fields in the Caribbean or Gulf. Hopefully I’m completely wrong and we get to all surf crowded Head high waves in my backyard…
Going out of town, it will be good.
M-dub, I lived just north of DT Sarasota in the early 90s taking the bus down 41 to the bust stop at Albee rd, then walking down to the inlet and then heading north making the walk all the way to Turtle Beach, then walk up past ….. to eventually getting to Siesta where I could pick up the bus again.
There’s a little slight bend about 2 miles north where there’s rock in front of a few mansions. When it’s clean swell an outgoing tide it throws over heavy for the GC. It doesn’t break that we’ll on mediocre swell. Too deep.
Breaks better on south than north.
Accessibility is key. Not one place to park.
Beautiful drive though.
Times on our side yall. Forward speed is slow.
Those quick moving TS’s don’t allow that SW quardrent to build up some fetch. That persistent SE only allows for a small background swell to slightly bend in. The Slower forward speed should help our chances.
Scratch my last comment! JDH is correct. The buoy just below the channel lit up with South & now WSW winds. We be surfin…
Take your time today, ladies and gents. Buoy is 4.6′ out of the SE … we wont get anything here until the MWD goes S and then SSW … maybe later today (Sat) … tomorrow morning should have the goods.
testing, testing. 1,2… 1,2. Mike check 1,2, check, check
thanks MW.
Russ D in the house 🙂
Question… I have lived on the east coast of Florida the last three years and before that in the panhandle where I surfed the gulf constantly when we had waves. A buddy and myself are planning to make our way over from Brevard in the morning and need some advice on where to surf with Alberto stirring things up in the gulf. Will the drive be worth it? Any help would greatly be appreciated. Thanks guys
The gulf is a fickle b*tch. Could be firing and could be moody and barely working. Good tide in the morning. Find the piers in AMI and you can find diff waves within a few miles each direction. Hit it as early as possible and bring good tunes for the rainy ride over and back.
Russ D is in the house …
Just checked my local spot and it’s flat pretty much
Buoy is still SE .. not gonna get anything til it starts clocking S and SW … uggg … (back to bed) ..
Pretty flat here too. Swell is lighting up on the shoal though
Once it travels a bit further north…. keys are already seeing S/SW.
It turned on here in the last hour. Waist-chest shore break with storm tide. Shoal still firing
yeah man AMI looks fun you should go surf, offshore winds
I got reports of clean swell and offshore winds in the southern counties go surf
I am so on the fence about this morning. Buoy (Egmont) is at 4.7’@6secs with a south wind. Might be something fun, might not. My back is tired from that little mush I surfed at sunset last night, and it is telling me to stay home. The brain is saying “you’re all loaded up, GO!!!!” hmmmm. Coffee is brewed, decisions are being thought about.
So the Egmont buoy has jumped up 6.6’@6secs but the swell went from 198° to 178° (that’s almost due South). I am not dawn patrolling it that’s for sure. Waiting to see the cams and make the call from there.
Meh, still ridable out there. Looks like poo though. This swell is very peaky and the short period waves make for some sick head high drops and then fizzle. There was a small moment of glory yesterday am before that south wind started cranking. I might do some searching later today after I get my bbq on!
My knee is killing me. Looks pretty crappy today on cams. Good reason (not to surf) …. for me anyway.
I think the EURO won this one