Category Archives: Hurricane and TS Swells

July Elsa 2021

WFL late Tuesday. Photo: venicejetty.com


Check out Whitney’s Restaurant on Longboat Key.

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My brother from another mother- Owen Weaver ripping Nokomis yesterday. Photo: venicejetty.com

Thursday WFL 7am Wave WX Report small leftovers this am best suited for a big log. Forecast- Knee high waves all day today, maybe plus peak at best spots on the right time and tide today. Tomorrow even smaller. The weekend looks calm but wave models show a 1ft at 8 second SSW swell for Saturday afternoon that is hardly worth a mention but a grom on a log may be able to find a ride this weekend besides that back to clam. Next week looks pretty calm at this point also. How was Elsa? Write your report in the comments today. This one is going in the books. To me it looked like a pretty good Cayo Hueso when it finally came up late Tuesday with offshores. How did I do? I think I finally got 1 right- 30-50miles offshore, pretty cool. The GFS also beat the EURO, right? Any opposing takes see you in the comments. Have a good day.

WFL late Tuesday. Photo: venicejetty.com



Wed 7am 7/7/21 WFL Elsa Updater:
Onshore winds are forecast today behind Elsa. The wind may drop back even more as Elsa moves away to allow the leftover waves to clean up a little more at some point today. In Venice the wind has already dropped back a bunch. The cleanest surf is most likely on the N side of the jetties and piers where there is a little protection. Surf is in the head high range this am at best spots and dropping to waist high by late today. Tomorrow best spots look to be knee to thigh as the waves fade even more. Friday just a 1ft southy is forecast and calm for the weekend. Thanks for the reports. How was the storm? Any flooding? Hope you find some fun waves.

Tuesday 7/6 WFL Elsa Take: Elsa looks raggedy on the satellite this am, super lopsided with all the convection over Cuba and the Peninsula of Florida and no wrap out into the gulf. GFS v EURO- so far the GFS was way ahead of the EURO in nailing the track thus far. Once the Hurricane Hunter Planes got in the storm and fed back the data, the GFS also predicted the pressure would jump way up to 1009, south of Cuba. The GFS shows a weak storm today. The Euro shows Elsa becoming a hurricane while skirting the coast today. The NHC stays PC and keep a strong TS along the coast with a hurricane watch to be safe. At this point we want the GFS- wont make much of a dif with surf but we don’t want the coastal flooding of a hurricane. Go GFS. Full report on GFS vs EURO coming later this week. Tomorrow looks chunky and onshore behind Elsa esp early. Thursday looks to be small leftovers and the models have backed off the secondary little southy for later Thursday, hope you find some waves.

Hi this is the WFL surf WX take for Elsa. The thoughts here are mine alone. When making decisions on whether to go surf or board up always consult your local WX authorities, these are just my opinions…
Monday WFL Elsa 10am: When will the waves come up? I’ll tell you what happened to me- I got up at 6am expecting surf and it was still flat. The buoy started to ping around 10am I got to the beach at 10:30am and the waves were fun. If I was in your shoes I would get up early tomorrow and check the cams and be ready if it comes in. If it’s a big east blow it may take awhile but if there are SSE winds at 30plus in the Keys early tomorrow(1am) the Cayo Hueso should be on it’s way to south swell spots esp south of TB. I hope you find some fun waves before conditions are likely to deteriorate. Elsa does not look as strong on radar to me as she did when she became the earliest Cape Verde hurricane ever near Barbados but still be prepared. Notice how she’s skirting the coast of Cuba? Looks to me like she does not want to go ashore. The more Longitude she gains the more offshore WFL she will be. But then comes the coastal flooding- so mixed emotions with this one really too close to the coast to feel stoked all the way. Hope for fun surf and not too much destruction, be ready for anything, gonna be a long season. Sorry for the late report- I’m fighting a summer cold but I’ll try and get up early tomorrow to give you an update, have a good day. The GFS shows lots of precip on the way for WFL starting this afternoon so you may be dodging rain storms with this one.
Sunday July 4th, 6am WFL Elsa Update: Elsa has slowed down a lot and that means you will have more time on Tuesday to surf before it gets squally. The waves look hard angled south to begin Tuesday with strong east winds, 1-2ft and building. It could be fun at the best south swell spots at some point. Later Tuesday conditions may deteriorate as Elsa gets closer. Elsa has been a pretty solid blow so far thru the Caribbean. Not like a powerful Cat 2 hurricane or more but a pretty solid tropical storm so those TS impacts are what you can expect Tuesday night into Wednesday, for more on that check your favorite local WX station. Wednesday looks pretty stormy with strong south flow with Elsa close to you and moving N while accelerating. A chance her tail could train over WFL. The high rebuilds more in the ATL and the SE/SSE flow over the southern gulf may keep a ridebale south swell for a couple more days as winds go slack near WFL. Thursday has a small 1 maybe 2ft @ 8seconds south swell showing up and into Friday. So hopefully some chances to get wet this week starting on Tuesday. Have a good Sunday.

Saturday 7/3: Elsa sends small shot of reverse SW swell to NW PR Thanks to Rob at Surfline for tipping me off to the ETA, got a fun surf in, no waves at dawn but it came up mid morning. Looks tiny but it had juice for the size and perfect form. SP wall was crazy fun, super peaky left wedges… Surfed Pools first and then SP Wall, then the wind got on it. The left at Domes was breaking down by the lighthouse but by that time it was SW winds onshore that side and NE winds on the N side, doh! I think if Elsa had kept it together and slowed down it would have been bigger and better. The track forecast over Cuba usually knocks the storms down. Lots of east wind on the N side. We got .15 rain and 20-30knt winds, no damage around here. I think south coast got more rain and def bigger choppier waves… I hope you guys get/got some waves… I’ll update Sunday am.

Pools Rock solo sesh.

Surf!

Lil’ bowls

sp wall not a set wave

surf

Small but fun.


Hi this is the WFL surf WX take for Thursday July 1st. The thoughts here are mine alone. When making decisions on whether to go surf always consult with your own brain first, these are just my opinions…

Thursday Euro v GFS Updater: The EURO continues to be out to lunch on Elsa fading her and sending her as an open wave thru the Central Bahamas. The GFS brings Elsa gulfside early Tuesday in just 5 days. The GFS has adjusted slightly south since yesterday. Better than reforming N which I was afraid of when 97L was an elongated trough. PR can breathe a little easier. Confidence is solid that Elsa will miss us. Everyone in PR is already surfing! Inches and Jobos have 20 people out apiece this am. Where I live the waves are like knee high and very mushy. I have not surfed in a month. Surfline called Elsa ‘Once in 100 years’. Indeed I’ve lived here for 10 years and never had a fully formed storm track thru the Caribbean like this, a few have gone by but they were open circulations at our way point and not wrapped until they got past our longitude. WHY? WHY WHY? 1. Africa is having a very solid monsoon season. So big waves will pour off Africa. 2 Not too much SAL dust this year at all. 3. Water is warming up 82-83 here by me- which I think is a bit cool this time of year, should be 83-84 but makes for cool breezes. 4. No shear from 800mb to 200 mb(that’s a bit above sea surface up to the 40,000ft in that order) it’s all east, no shear!!!! that’s why I’m saying: all the lights are green. What it means for you: Under the current scenario WFL could see building Cayo Hueso next Tuesday as Elsa enters the gulf. That’s how it looks as of now. Have a great day. Add on: Check your hurricane supplies, Elsa has the green light and she will follow the periphery of the Bermuda High which if all goes acc to the forecast scenario puts her close to WFL, hopefully offshore with groomed swell but maybe closer.
So good, the whole thing- sounds like the 70’s but better!

This is the location of my WX station. Link below if y our a WX nerd and you like to check random sites for current conditions as tropical systems pass by.

Finca Weaver WX station located in Rincon, PR
Wednesday Updater 6:22am Wave models continue to show 1ft maybe plus at 8 seconds SSW for tomorrow. It would be worth a check on the cams in the am, local wind looks light ESE. It would be a clean little slide if it shows up at best south swell spots. Tropics (more below): 95L hammering Barbados on the radar this am. 97L looks menacing with spin. The GFS tracks a solid tropical storm/Cat1 below PR and into the DR, booooo. Why do the poor countries always get hit early and late? I should be stoked bc it could send a good SSW swell up the channel to my backyard, we’ll see… I just have that sinking feeling about this hurricane season. This is way too early to be getting Cape Verde’s holding together. People are dying from the heat in British Columbia, all time record, never before recorded. Crazy, the word is ‘unprecedented’. I hope we don’t have a ‘unprecedented’ Atlantic hurricane season but Cape Verde’s at the beginning of July is not CLIMO at all- it’s like hurricane season on crack. Can we believe the GFS? Honestly it’s been my go to model over the years(see Harvey, Irma, Maria 2017) even though the EURO wins about 50% of the time. OK lets do this- EURO vs GFS Wed 6/30: GFS has Cat 1 S of PR, Euro has a weak TD fading out. The timing is Saturday. So by Saturday night we’ll know which model will win and that will start to give us a little more confidence. What about Claudette? EURO had a Texas storm. GFS nailed the LA track and strength. We will see. Tomorrow: If I was on the GC I would get up to pee at 5am, check 42098 and if it looked like a small swell came in- take my log and a fish(wishfrul thinking) and go to maybe my fave S swell spot just for the chance it could be fun. Better yet: at least wait for very first light to check the cams and see if a south line shows up, maybe that’s better… It sucks to get skunked and my track record has not been great forecasting lately IMO, reader beware disclaimed.


Speaking of EURO’s… I have a confession:
I am a closet soccer fan! There I said it, I confessed. Dude, the EURO 2020 has been so good. If your waiting for the NFL and bored to tears by MLB and confused with the NHL- the EURO has been really good. Check out England v Germany yesterday. I thought the Brits were reserved. If your bored with it FFWD to the 75th minute, holy cow. It was like WW II. Anyways my team is Italia. They have a huge game vs Belgium on Friday and Belgium is awesome!! Fuerza Italia…

Aaron Cormican RNF’n it gulf-side. Photo: M Weaver.


Wednesday Add On:
Just for way out there in 168hrs a TS is entering the gulf from the Keys on the GFS. It will undoubtedly change between now and then but something to watch for next week. 97L is a low rider and could be headed for the gulf eventually.

Did I help anyone score any waves in June? Donation link to the left, no worries thanks again.

June had some waves from the trough and from Claudette… If you appreciate the hard work and early reports and you feel like donating it’s much appreciated. Paypal on the right side panel- Venmo is preferred and super easy! My Venmo is: Micah-Weaver-8. Your generosity is awesome!

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