Isaias Report Below…
NW PR Friday the day after Isaias: Thanks to everyone who donated! You guys rock. You helped pay for my generator gas and hurricane supplies and you inspire me to forecast. I will send you a personal note soon. Friday got much better here. I had to work near the beach so I checked Domes just to see what it was like and it was sunny and the current had brought some blue water in and a bunch of people were out surfing, what a suprise! Lots of kids playing on the beach. Fortunately, I had a board in my car and I got some super fun waves down by the lighthouse. A SW swell was comboing with a NW and creating these wedge peaks that were totally shreddable. By far my best surf of the summer. So stoked… I went back in the evening for another session but the water had turned brown again and the swell died. So glad I got some mid day! If you want to see better pics check out Justin’s site: Rincon Surf Report.
Closing the Book on Isaias: Isaias is in Canada and the NHC has issued it’s last advisory on the tropical cyclone, #33… Do you remember when Isaias was a split system, 92L in the Central Atlantic? What a massive storm. The opposite of tiny Gonzalo(The EURO won, right? slower and souther than the GFS). Isaias was probably the strongest tropical wave in a looong time. Isaias was definitely the strongest tropical storm I have ever experienced by far- the top end of the spectrum. Watching the news and seeing the swash of destruction up the east coast I think many would agree with me. I can remember tropical storms in WFL that were non events. In 1989 one passed right over IRB(Marcos) with light winds and no rain. In 2012 one came to PR, everything shut down and the tropical storm evaporated before it came ashore, seriously. Isaias was the hurricane tropical storm! He became a hurricane twice and caused much misery from the Antilles into Canada. That was a gnarly storm- from 92L the monster wave to flooding Puerto Rico and the DR to slamming the Bahamas and the Carolinas… If ever a tropical storm needed to have his name retired Isaias was the one. 5 people died from Isaias, 1 right here in my little pueblo when her car was carried down a river and flipped she drowned and they found her body in a field 3 days later. Crazy powerful storm for being not that powerful of a storm. I have a bad feeling there are more like Isaias on the way. What if they just start coming 1 after another? Isaias track sucked for surfers, unless you live in SE FL behind the Bahamas Block. An ocean hurricane would have been much better for everyone. Just the way things are going in 2020. What’s next? Right now there are 3 waves engulfed in SAL and not expected to form but down the road watch out things are going to get crazy!
Why was the storm so bad in Puerto Rico? It was PTC9 before arriving…
1. even though the storm was moving at 23 miles per hour he was so massive that his tail end got stuck over the island for 12 hours… 2. he was strengthening as he passed PR… 3. we were on the Southeast side which was his most powerful side. Tens of thousands of people are still without power a week later. Some people left their homes because they were flooded and now they’re living in other homes with family. The chief of the electric company resigns today because of the outrage here over the failure of the Electric System even three years after Maria. Puerto Rico obviously is not ready for a storm, infrastructure was rebuilt, we got a 100 new back up generators. One fact that came out was that while Puerto Rico is a super jungle and there are bamboo and trees all over the power lines- the electric company employs dozens of tree trimmers but since Maria they have actually let tree trimmers go so there is less maintenance on the infrastructure than there used to be, go figure.
Locally, within 12 hours during the passing of Isaias Western PR received 10 to 12 inches of rain, the most serious flash flooding any of the old-timers here have seen ever in their lives. Everyone agrees- the flooding was way worse than Maria. Houses and cars flooded, 300,000 people without electricity and 60 mile per hour winds… See you later Isaias.
In case you want to check WX conditions at my place:
Finca Weaver Weather Station
From 7/28/2020 The Euro wins! 92L Save this next part for future reference: The GFS takes Isaias very close to the northernmost Leeward islands and passes him 50-100miles N of Puerto Rico as a tropical storm or cat1 hurricane, same track as yesterday but a little weaker. The EURO continues to take Isaias below Puerto Rico. Which model will win? More than that, to me, the distinct possibility is a blend of the both and a strong Azores High which will make him run right across PR. Cat1 is not a big deal here, we have afternoon t storms with 60-75mph winds. For sensible WX- a weak trough will settle into N Florida next weekend turning the wind offshore for the EC as they see in an uptick in swell Friday/Saturday, check the EC forecast… Go go GFS! Have a good day.
Friday 7/31/20 WFL Surf Report and Forecast 8:00am: Synopsis: Hurricane Isaias will travel up thru the Bahamas and brush the EC, The NHC has forecast the hurricane to stay offshore in the Atlantic. The wave models are not showing his wrap making for wind-swell in the eastern gulf which is what normally happens when hurricanes parallel the east coast of Florida- we get a 2ft NW windswell wrap, almost cold front style but in the middle of summer. That being said even though the wave models are not calling for WFL surf I would not be surprised to see a small LB wave Sunday afternoon when Isaias is closest to the WFL coast. Write this one off, go east if you think you can score but do not feel bad that this thing is NOT coming up the west coast of Florida. You DO NOT want this thing in your neighborhood nor his big fat butt flooding your area. The east side of the storm is way worse than the west side so maybe that’s why the models are not calling for waves in the gulf. Anyways, ride your bike, skate, drive east(?at your own risk) but don’t wish that this would have come in the gulf it would have been too close! It’s just another save for WFL and another bash in the head for Puerto Rico. Summary: Isaias sucks and all we have is a chance for a small LB wave when he is closest to WFL which looks to be on Sunday but be glad you were spared any destruction and floods and having your beaches and ocean ruined.
The Isaias Report from NW Puerto Rico: The storm passed just SW of the island then the circulation broke and came up the Mona Passage, 3 miles from my house and reformed on the northern coast of the DR becoming a hurricane. Isaias was really big and powerful for being a tropical storm. It packed a heavy punch and even though it was moving quickly it was so huge that it lasted 18 hours here. The worst impacts wish were 10 and a 1/2 inches of rain in about 12 hours. The rain was super heavy and Non-Stop and came with 40-60 mile per hour winds. The highest gust at my house was 55. Up in the mountains there was some damage from rivers that broke loose but the real destruction came on the ground level when all that water came down the mountains and flooded all the roads. Hundreds if not thousands of cars and houses were flooded. A woman died here in Rincon when her car was carried away by a river. All that water eventually ended up in the ocean which is now really ugly and disgusting so yeah that was a bad storm and I feel bad for anyone that’s in its way. It’s one thing to get some rains but that was more rain than Maria. The most rain I’ve seen since I’ve lived here. We’ve been without electricity for 2 days now we are running on generator power. Yesterday half the island did not have power.
Disaster Preparedness: I had a friend of mine who came down for disaster relief help me close in our laundry room because it was a weak spot during Maria. That ended up being really good bc it kept the water from coming in that part of the house. I took down all the shade sails, closed up all the windows tight, tied up all of our potted plants and patio furniture which turned out to work out really good. I did not board up. I didn’t think 40 to 60 mile per hour winds called for it and really it was not necessary. I should have gone around and re-caulked my windows because we did get a little bit of water in the house from the windows. The generator received an update and a lot of maintenance so it’s been running really good and it’s hard wired into the house now so I felt pretty prepared. Hopefully you guys stay safe but be prepared if 1 comes your way. I’m a bit anxious we are going to get a lot more storms before the cold fronts push into the ATL in a couple months.
Thanks guys. There is 1 day left in July so I’m posting the button below if your up 4 it, no worries I did forecast duro this month, hopefully it helped a little…
Hola amigos just wanted to let you know a little change with the website. At the end of every month I’m going to start doing a donation drive just to let you guys know. If your able to and you appreciate the forecasts and reports, gracias!
My Venmo is @Micah-Weaver-8 in case your use/prefer Venmo. thanks!
You guys have always taken such good care of me and my family know that your donations go right to our families expenses so we appreciate it very much. And I will also try and do an extra good job with the report making it early! Staying on top of the forecast through the summer…
In case you want to check WX conditions at my place during the 92L event:
Finca Weaver Weather Station
92L Save this next part for future reference: The GFS takes Isaias very close to the northernmost Leeward islands and passes him 50-100miles N of Puerto Rico as a tropical storm or cat1 hurricane, same track as yesterday but a little weaker. The EURO continues to take Isaias below Puerto Rico. Which model will win? More than that, to me, the distinct possibility is a blend of the both and a strong Azores High which will make him run right across PR. Cat1 is not a big deal here, we have afternoon t storms with 60-75mph winds. For sensible WX- a weak trough will settle into N Florida next weekend turning the wind offshore for the EC as they see in an uptick in swell Friday/Saturday, check the EC forecast… Go go GFS! Have a good day.